South Carolina vs. North Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SCTeam statsUNC
- Q4 12:19SCMitch Jeter 26 Yd Field Goal 31–17
- Q3 6:29UNCJohn Copenhaver 18 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Ryan Coe Kick)31–14
- Q3 11:35UNCOmarion Hampton 1 Yd Run (Ryan Coe Kick)24–14
- Q2 2:50UNCKobe Paysour 34 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Ryan Coe Kick)17–14
- Q2 5:16SCJuju McDowell 1 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)10–14
- Q2 7:05UNCRyan Coe 37 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 6:29SCDakereon Joyner 4 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:50UNCOmarion Hampton 1 Yd Run (Ryan Coe Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UNC did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 5.8
- SC lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 33% success rate
- PassSpencer Rattler 30/39, 353 YDS
- RushDakereon Joyner 12 CAR, 23 YDS, 1 TD
- RecXavier Legette 9 REC, 178 YDS
- PassDrake Maye 24/32, 269 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushBritish Brooks 15 CAR, 103 YDS
- RecKobe Paysour 7 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSC up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 839 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 2:50SC +23%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 34 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK)
- Q2 5:16UNC +18%
Juju McDowell run for 1 yd for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
- Q1 6:29UNC +18%
Dakereon Joyner run for 4 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
- Q1 9:50SC +17%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd for a TD South Carolina Penalty, 12 Men on the Field ( Yards) declined (Ryan Coe KICK)
- Q3 11:35SC +16%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK)
- Q3 6:29SC +12%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 18 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of South Carolina vs. North Carolina?
South Carolina 17, North Carolina 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SC | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 351 | Total yards | 437 |
| 353 | Passing yards | 269 |
| -2 | Rushing yards | 168 |
| 20 | First downs | 21 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 8-13 |
| 0-4 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 30/39 | Comp/Att | 24/32 |
| 9.1 | Yards per pass | 8.4 |
| -0.1 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-35 | Penalties | 7-49 |
| 27:23 | Possession | 32:37 |
Costliest call
Q3 9:54 SC punt on 4th & 17 at UNC 18. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 2.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:19SCMitch Jeter 26 Yd Field Goal 31–17
- Q3 6:29UNCJohn Copenhaver 18 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Ryan Coe Kick)31–14
- Q3 11:35UNCOmarion Hampton 1 Yd Run (Ryan Coe Kick)24–14
- Q2 2:50UNCKobe Paysour 34 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Ryan Coe Kick)17–14
- Q2 5:16SCJuju McDowell 1 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)10–14
- Q2 7:05UNCRyan Coe 37 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 6:29SCDakereon Joyner 4 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:50UNCOmarion Hampton 1 Yd Run (Ryan Coe Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNC Elo 1539, SC Elo 1580 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects UNC +1.6 (47% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNorth Carolina leads 36–20–4 · 47% have been one-possession games
| SC | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.1 (#54) | CORE overall | +5.2 (#44) |
| -1 / -2 | offense / defense | +7 / +2 |
| 1.90 | points / drive | 2.69 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 2.24 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →