Virginia Tech vs. Vanderbilt: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
VTTeam statsVAN
- OT 0:00VANDiego Pavia 4 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)27–34
- Q4 1:51VANSedrick Alexander 8 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)27–27
- Q4 4:21VTAli Jennings 62 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)27–20
- Q4 10:12VTBhayshul Tuten 11 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)20–20
- Q3 0:34VTJohn Love 38 Yd Field Goal 13–20
- Q3 7:07VANBrock Taylor 53 Yd Field Goal 10–20
- Q3 12:42VTBhayshul Tuten 24 Yd Run (John Love Kick)10–17
- Q2 0:52VTJohn Love 40 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 5:18VANSedrick Alexander 7 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)0–17
- Q2 14:54VANQuincy Skinner Jr. 14 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)0–10
- Q1 8:27VANBrock Taylor 43 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassKyron Drones 22/33, 322 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushBhayshul Tuten 9 CAR, 34 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAli Jennings 2 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDiego Pavia 12/16, 190 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDiego Pavia 26 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- RecQuincy Skinner Jr. 4 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsVAN up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,297 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00VAN +77%
Brock Taylor 43 yd FG MISSED
- Q4 1:51VAN +65%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 8 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
- Q4 10:12VT +47%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Bhayshul Tuten for 11 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
- Q4 1:48VT +42%
Kyron Drones pass incomplete to Ali Jennings
- Q4 4:21VT +29%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ali Jennings for 62 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
- Q4 0:57VT +24%
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the VT 46
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia Tech vs. Vanderbilt?
Virginia Tech 27, Vanderbilt 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked VT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| VT | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 397 | Total yards | 371 |
| 322 | Passing yards | 190 |
| 75 | Rushing yards | 181 |
| 21 | First downs | 20 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 22/34 | Comp/Att | 12/16 |
| 9.5 | Yards per pass | 11.9 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 6-65 |
| 25:28 | Possession | 34:32 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:38 VAN punt on 4th & 13 at VT 36. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00VANDiego Pavia 4 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)27–34
- Q4 1:51VANSedrick Alexander 8 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)27–27
- Q4 4:21VTAli Jennings 62 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)27–20
- Q4 10:12VTBhayshul Tuten 11 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)20–20
- Q3 0:34VTJohn Love 38 Yd Field Goal 13–20
- Q3 7:07VANBrock Taylor 53 Yd Field Goal 10–20
- Q3 12:42VTBhayshul Tuten 24 Yd Run (John Love Kick)10–17
- Q2 0:52VTJohn Love 40 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 5:18VANSedrick Alexander 7 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)0–17
- Q2 14:54VANQuincy Skinner Jr. 14 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)0–10
- Q1 8:27VANBrock Taylor 43 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VAN Elo 1284, VT Elo 1604 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VAN +10.4 (26% to win) — 3.1 points clear of VAN's market line of +13.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#59 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #16 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →Virginia Tech leads 6–5 · Vanderbilt has won 2 straight · 18% have been one-possession games
| VT | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.4 (#48) | CORE overall | -3.8 (#79) |
| -1 / -6 | offense / defense | +2 / +6 |
| 2.32 | points / drive | 2.46 |
| 1.91 | allowed / drive | 2.53 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →