Oregon vs. Stanford: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORETeam statsSTAN
- Q4 11:33ORETraeshon Holden 9 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)42–6
- Q3 1:43ORETroy Franklin 5 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)35–6
- Q3 8:54ORETroy Franklin 46 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)28–6
- Q3 10:43ORETerrance Ferguson 10 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)21–6
- Q2 2:23OREBucky Irving 17 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)14–6
- Q2 8:15OREJordan James 30 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)7–6
- Q2 14:55STANJoshua Karty 53 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 7:18STANJoshua Karty 37 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassBo Nix 27/32, 290 YDS, 4 TD
- RushBucky Irving 13 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTroy Franklin 7 REC, 117 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJustin Lamson 11/20, 106 YDS
- RushJustin Lamson 22 CAR, 32 YDS
- RecMudia Reuben 4 REC, 40 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORE up 29 entering the 4th quarter. Across 525 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 8:15ORE +15%
Jordan James run for 30 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
- Q2 2:23ORE +11%
Bucky Irving run for 17 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
- Q2 14:55STAN +7%
Joshua Karty 53 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 7:18STAN +7%
Joshua Karty 37 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon vs. Stanford?
Oregon 42, Stanford 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
| ORE | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 506 | Total yards | 222 |
| 298 | Passing yards | 133 |
| 208 | Rushing yards | 89 |
| 26 | First downs | 16 |
| 6-9 | 3rd down | 6-18 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 3-6 |
| 28/33 | Comp/Att | 14/24 |
| 9.0 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 7.4 | Yards per rush | 1.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-20 | Penalties | 4-25 |
| 24:24 | Possession | 35:36 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:40 STAN punt on 4th & 2 at STAN 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:33ORETraeshon Holden 9 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)42–6
- Q3 1:43ORETroy Franklin 5 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)35–6
- Q3 8:54ORETroy Franklin 46 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)28–6
- Q3 10:43ORETerrance Ferguson 10 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)21–6
- Q2 2:23OREBucky Irving 17 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)14–6
- Q2 8:15OREJordan James 30 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)7–6
- Q2 14:55STANJoshua Karty 53 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 7:18STANJoshua Karty 37 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (STAN Elo 1278, ORE Elo 1782 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects STAN +17.8 (13% to win) — 9.2 points clear of STAN's market line of +27. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesStanford leads 47–36–1 · Oregon has won 2 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| ORE | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| +40.9 (#1) | CORE overall | -15.4 (#110) |
| +28 / -13 | offense / defense | -7 / +8 |
| 4.02 | points / drive | 1.84 |
| 1.63 | allowed / drive | 3.35 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →