Wyoming vs. Nevada: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WYOTeam statsNEV
- Q4 12:56WYOAndrew Peasley 3 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)42–6
- Q3 7:09WYOHarrison Waylee 2 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)35–6
- Q3 11:43WYOAyir Asante 9 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (John Hoyland Kick)28–6
- Q2 2:23NEVBrandon Talton 47 Yd Field Goal 21–6
- Q2 9:54WYOWyett Ekeler 0 Yd Field Goal 28–3
- Q2 9:54WYOWyett Ekeler 38 Yd Interception Return (John Hoyland Kick)21–3
- Q2 13:28NEVBrandon Talton 40 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q1 3:29WYOWill Pelissier 34 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (John Hoyland Kick)14–0
- Q1 6:32WYOAndrew Peasley 43 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NEV played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WYO did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.9 vs 3rd & 5.3
- NEV lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 28% success rate
- PassAndrew Peasley 12/18, 165 YDS, 2 TD
- RushAndrew Peasley 9 CAR, 96 YDS, 2 TD
- RecWyatt Wieland 4 REC, 43 YDS
- PassShane Illingworth 15/27, 175 YDS, 1 INT
- RushSean Dollars 8 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecSpencer Curtis 5 REC, 70 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWYO up 29 entering the 4th quarter. Across 526 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 6:32WYO +14%
Andrew Peasley run for 43 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
- Q1 3:29WYO +9%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Will Pelissier for 34 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
- Q2 2:23WYO +5%
Brandon Talton 47 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Wyoming vs. Nevada?
Wyoming 42, Nevada 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WYO) was correct.
| WYO | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 409 | Total yards | 201 |
| 165 | Passing yards | 183 |
| 244 | Rushing yards | 18 |
| 24 | First downs | 14 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 2-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 12/18 | Comp/Att | 17/30 |
| 9.2 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 5.7 | Yards per rush | 0.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-33 | Penalties | 6-45 |
| 34:47 | Possession | 25:13 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:15 NEV go for it on 4th & 11 at WYO 18. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.99 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:56WYOAndrew Peasley 3 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)42–6
- Q3 7:09WYOHarrison Waylee 2 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)35–6
- Q3 11:43WYOAyir Asante 9 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (John Hoyland Kick)28–6
- Q2 2:23NEVBrandon Talton 47 Yd Field Goal 21–6
- Q2 9:54WYOWyett Ekeler 0 Yd Field Goal 28–3
- Q2 9:54WYOWyett Ekeler 38 Yd Interception Return (John Hoyland Kick)21–3
- Q2 13:28NEVBrandon Talton 40 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q1 3:29WYOWill Pelissier 34 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (John Hoyland Kick)14–0
- Q1 6:32WYOAndrew Peasley 43 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEV Elo 1153, WYO Elo 1421 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEV +8.3 (30% to win) — 2.7 points clear of NEV's market line of +11. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWyoming leads 6–5 · 73% have been one-possession games
| WYO | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.8 (#70) | CORE overall | -25.9 (#132) |
| -2 / -0 | offense / defense | -20 / +5 |
| 2.04 | points / drive | 1.24 |
| 2.12 | allowed / drive | 2.74 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →