Coastal Carolina vs. James Madison: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CCUTeam statsJMU
- Q4 5:14JMUMax Lipinski 35 Yd Field Goal 7–39
- Q3 10:41JMUDylan Williams 3 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Max Lipinski Kick)7–36
- Q2 6:47JMUAlonza Barnett III 5 Yd Run (Max Lipinski Kick)7–29
- Q2 11:51JMULloyd Summerall III 35 Yd Interception Return (Max Lipinski Kick)7–22
- Q2 13:01JMUTaylor Thompson 25 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Taylor Thompson Pass to Josh Phifer for Two-Point Conversion)7–15
- Q1 4:30CCUJameson Tucker 40 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Kade Hensley Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:51JMUGeorge Pettaway 9 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Max Lipinski Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- JMU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassEthan Vasko 5/18, 84 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushBraydon Bennett 12 CAR, 45 YDS
- RecJameson Tucker 2 REC, 44 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAlonza Barnett III 16/28, 199 YDS, 3 TD
- RushGeorge Pettaway 13 CAR, 89 YDS
- RecTaylor Thompson 2 REC, 58 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsJMU up 29 entering the 4th quarter. Across 525 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 13:01JMU +11%
Taylor Thompson 25 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Taylor Thompson Pass to Josh Phifer for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q1 4:30CCU +10%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 40 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
- Q1 6:51JMU +8%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to George Pettaway for 9 yds for a TD (Max Lipinski KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Coastal Carolina vs. James Madison?
Coastal Carolina 7, James Madison 39.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
| CCU | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 181 | Total yards | 421 |
| 102 | Passing yards | 199 |
| 79 | Rushing yards | 222 |
| 8 | First downs | 20 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 9/26 | Comp/Att | 16/28 |
| 3.9 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-58 | Penalties | 9-62 |
| 21:06 | Possession | 38:54 |
Costliest call
Q3 3:25 JMU punt on 4th & 1 at JMU 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.36 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:14JMUMax Lipinski 35 Yd Field Goal 7–39
- Q3 10:41JMUDylan Williams 3 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Max Lipinski Kick)7–36
- Q2 6:47JMUAlonza Barnett III 5 Yd Run (Max Lipinski Kick)7–29
- Q2 11:51JMULloyd Summerall III 35 Yd Interception Return (Max Lipinski Kick)7–22
- Q2 13:01JMUTaylor Thompson 25 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Taylor Thompson Pass to Josh Phifer for Two-Point Conversion)7–15
- Q1 4:30CCUJameson Tucker 40 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Kade Hensley Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:51JMUGeorge Pettaway 9 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Max Lipinski Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (JMU Elo 1823, CCU Elo 1456 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects JMU -17.1 (87% to win) — 10.1 points clear of JMU's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CCU | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.9 (#106) | CORE overall | +3.9 (#52) |
| -3 / +9 | offense / defense | -5 / -9 |
| 2.27 | points / drive | 2.39 |
| 2.56 | allowed / drive | 1.32 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -5 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →