South Dakota State vs. Missouri State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

South Dakota State0-1

▸0045

Missouri State0-1

09

Final

Plaster Sports ComplexConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
SOUT	7	17	14	7	45
MOST	0	9	0	0	9

SOUTTeam statsMOST

447Total yards220

276Pass186

171Rush34

26First downs12

7-133rd down2-14

1Turnovers1

34:32Possession25:28

Scoring plays

• Q4 9:02SOUTKirby Vorhees 2 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)45–9
• Q3 7:47SOUTGriffin Wilde 53 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)38–9
• Q3 11:08SOUTAmar Johnson 3 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)31–9
• Q2 0:04SOUTKirby Vorhees 2 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)24–9
• Q2 1:43MOSTYousef Obeid 23 Yd Field Goal 17–9
• Q2 2:13MOSTYousef Obeid 28 Yd Field Goal 17–6
• Q2 6:55SOUTHunter Dustman 40 Yd Field Goal 17–3
• Q2 11:17MOSTYousef Obeid 50 Yd Field Goal 14–3
• Q2 14:17SOUTKevin Brenner 10 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)14–0
• Q1 7:53SOUTAmar Johnson 9 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

SOUT −14.5

Against the number

SOUT covered

line SOUT −14.5

What the numbers say

• MOST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SOUT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.6 vs 3rd & 6.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MOST 100%50%SOUT 100%

Kickoff145 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MOST (top)SOUT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MOST 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

SOUT −14.5

Closing total

58.5

Model line

—

Actual result

SOUT 45 – 9 MOST

Leaders

South Dakota State

• PassMark Gronowski 14/25, 258 YDS, 2 TD
• RushAmar Johnson 12 CAR, 58 YDS, 2 TD
• RecGriffin Wilde 4 REC, 139 YDS, 1 TD

Missouri State

• PassJacob Clark 14/31, 186 YDS
• RushJacardia Wright 9 CAR, 16 YDS
• RecDVontae Key 5 REC, 70 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

28.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

127

Points / snap

0.43

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

SOUT up 29 entering the 4th quarter. Across 525 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

SOUT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WOregon vs Stanford42-6WNorth Dakota State vs Murray State38-6WWyoming vs Nevada42-6WJames Madison vs Coastal Carolina39-7WTexas State vs Arkansas State41-9

Fourth downs

19 calls

MOST gave up 0.7 points to the model on fourth down.SOUT 5/5 · MOST 7/12 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of South Dakota State vs. Missouri State?

South Dakota State 45, Missouri State 9.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked MOST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

SOUT

MOST

51%

Success rate

21%

0.57

EPA / pass

0.07

0.37

EPA / rush

-0.19

50%

Early-down success

20%

45%

Pass success

22%

56%

Rush success

19%

14%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

11%

5%

Stuffed rush rate

29%

44%

Pass rate

63%

6.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.6

SOUT

6.5 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

MOST

8.6 yards to go on 3rd down

57 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

SOUT		MOST
447	Total yards	220
276	Passing yards	186
171	Rushing yards	34
26	First downs	12
7-13	3rd down	2-14
1-1	4th down	2-3
16/27	Comp/Att	14/31
10.2	Yards per pass	6.0
4.2	Yards per rush	1.3
1	Turnovers	1
2-15	Penalties	4-41
34:32	Possession	25:28

Fourth downs

19 calls

SOUT

5/5 with the model

nothing given up

MOST

7/12 with the model

−0.7 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 9:12 MOST punt on 4th & 2 at MOST 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.

Every call, priced (19)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

SOUT 7/11 scoring drives← own end zone →MOST 3/13 scoring drives

SOUTTD14 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q1

MOSTPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 23Q1

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 36Q1

MOSTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 14Q1

SOUTTD8 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q1

MOSTFG7 pl, 43 yds· own 25Q2

SOUTFG8 pl, 48 yds· own 30Q2

MOSTFG11 pl, 63 yds· own 25Q2

MOSTFG4 pl, -3 yds· opp 2Q2

SOUTTD10 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q2

MOSTEND1 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q2

MOSTPUNT4 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q3

SOUTTD5 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q3

MOSTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q3

SOUTTD3 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q3

MOSTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q3

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 22Q3

MOSTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 21Q3

SOUTPUNT3 pl, -13 yds· own 33Q3

MOSTFUM7 pl, 34 yds· own 14Q3

SOUTTD8 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q4

MOSTDOWNS10 pl, 45 yds· own 18Q4

SOUTPUNT4 pl, 18 yds· own 37Q4

MOSTEND1 pl, 3 yds· own 16Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 9:02SOUTKirby Vorhees 2 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)45–9
• Q3 7:47SOUTGriffin Wilde 53 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)38–9
• Q3 11:08SOUTAmar Johnson 3 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)31–9
• Q2 0:04SOUTKirby Vorhees 2 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)24–9
• Q2 1:43MOSTYousef Obeid 23 Yd Field Goal 17–9
• Q2 2:13MOSTYousef Obeid 28 Yd Field Goal 17–6
• Q2 6:55SOUTHunter Dustman 40 Yd Field Goal 17–3
• Q2 11:17MOSTYousef Obeid 50 Yd Field Goal 14–3
• Q2 14:17SOUTKevin Brenner 10 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)14–0
• Q1 7:53SOUTAmar Johnson 9 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →