Syracuse vs. Duke: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SYRTeam statsDUKE
- Q4 1:52SYRJawhar Jordan 7 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)49–6
- Q4 8:47SYRJarveon Howard 28 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)42–6
- Q3 4:35SYRMoe Neal 2 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)35–6
- Q3 7:54SYRLuke Benson 22 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Andre Szmyt Kick)28–6
- Q3 12:48SYRAndre Cisco 48 Yd Interception Return (Andre Szmyt Kick)21–6
- Q2 0:22DUKEAJ Reed 51 Yd Field Goal 14–6
- Q2 6:14DUKEAJ Reed 31 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q1 3:37SYRTommy DeVito 1 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:36SYRTrishton Jackson 18 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- DUKE played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SYR did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.5 vs 3rd & 5.2
- PassTommy DeVito 6/15, 105 YDS, 2 TD
- RushMoe Neal 17 CAR, 115 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTrishton Jackson 2 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- PassQuentin Harris 19/36, 157 YDS, 2 INT
- RushMataeo Durant 11 CAR, 54 YDS
- RecAaron Young 5 REC, 63 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSYR up 29 entering the 4th quarter. Across 527 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:37SYR +18%
Tommy DeVito run for 1 yd for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK)
- Q1 9:36SYR +18%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 18 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK)
- Q3 12:48SYR +16%
Quentin Harris pass intercepted for a TD Andre Cisco return for 48 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK)
- Q3 7:54SYR +9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Luke Benson for 22 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK) DUKE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
- Q2 0:22DUKE +9%
AJ Reed 51 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 6:14DUKE +6%
AJ Reed 31 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Syracuse vs. Duke?
Syracuse 49, Duke 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked DUKE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SYR | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 395 | Total yards | 279 |
| 109 | Passing yards | 157 |
| 286 | Rushing yards | 122 |
| 16 | First downs | 19 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 5-20 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 7/16 | Comp/Att | 19/40 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 3.9 |
| 6.7 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-39 | Penalties | 4-20 |
| 27:18 | Possession | 32:42 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:45 SYR punt on 4th & 2 at DUKE 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.19 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:52SYRJawhar Jordan 7 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)49–6
- Q4 8:47SYRJarveon Howard 28 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)42–6
- Q3 4:35SYRMoe Neal 2 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)35–6
- Q3 7:54SYRLuke Benson 22 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Andre Szmyt Kick)28–6
- Q3 12:48SYRAndre Cisco 48 Yd Interception Return (Andre Szmyt Kick)21–6
- Q2 0:22DUKEAJ Reed 51 Yd Field Goal 14–6
- Q2 6:14DUKEAJ Reed 31 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q1 3:37SYRTommy DeVito 1 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:36SYRTrishton Jackson 18 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DUKE Elo 1485, SYR Elo 1375 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DUKE -6.8 (69% to win) — 2.2 points clear of SYR's market line of -9. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#2 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #45 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →| SYR | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.7 (#111) | CORE overall | -10.4 (#103) |
| -8 / +7 | offense / defense | -14 / -3 |
| 2.01 | points / drive | 1.54 |
| 2.50 | allowed / drive | 2.22 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →