Utah State vs. Oregon State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Utah State gets at Oregon State: 31st at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 117th at closing out passing downs. Where Oregon State gets at Utah State: 29th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 96th at stuffing runs at the line. Utah State is also 29th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 98th.
How
USUattacks
ORST
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · 21% this season, 2 games
USU42%#31 of 138ORST37%#117 of 138 - 2
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 53% this season, 2 games
USU1.35#29 of 138ORST1.23#98 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · 24% this season, 2 games
USU2.40#84 of 138ORST4.13#122 of 138
HowORSTattacksUSU
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 24% this season, 2 games
ORST7.9%#29 of 138USU22.0%#96 of 138
The two teams
Utah State
Utah State throws it: Bronco Mendenhall's offenses have been pass-leaning across 9 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 11th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 130th at generating havoc, and they are 122nd at staying out of the backfield.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −32.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Utah State has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.00#11 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.35#29 of 138
- Offensesurviving second and twelve42%#31 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss9.9%#130 of 138
- Offensegetting stopped at the line27.5%#122 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down36%#109 of 138
Oregon State
Oregon State is in year 1 under JaMarcus Shephard. The strengths are offensive, led by 11th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 136th at running it, and they are 126th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Oregon State has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.63#11 of 138
- Offensegetting stopped at the line7.9%#29 of 138
Soft spots
- Offenserunning it-0.08#136 of 138
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points3.45#126 of 138
- Offensethe push the line gets2.86#123 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORST Elo 1285, USU Elo 1381 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORST +10.9 (25% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
USU126th112thORSTORST71st41stUSUThrough the air
USU77th114thORSTORST3rd66thUSUOn the ground
USU111th120thORSTORST137th52ndUSUStaying on the field
USU20th131stORSTORST128th64thUSUTaking care of it
USU137th46thORSTORST21st127thUSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USU | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.1 (#64) | CORE overall | -1.5 (#78) |
| -3 / -4 | offense / defense | +2 / +3 |
| 1.27 | points / drive | 2.04 |
| 1.46 | allowed / drive | 2.88 |
| 45% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +15 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Utah State vs. Oregon State?
Gridpex's model favors Utah State with a 75% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Utah State vs. Oregon State?
The model projects Utah State by 10.9.
What time is Utah State vs. Oregon State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 21, 10:30 PM ET, at Reser Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →