Oregon State vs. Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORSTTeam statsHOU
- Q4 5:01HOUConner Weigman 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)20–33
- Q4 9:02ORSTAJ Newberry 4 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)20–26
- Q3 0:44ORSTJesse Legree 7 Yd pass from Braden Atkinson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–26
- Q3 6:40HOUMakhi Hughes 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)7–26
- Q2 0:35HOUJonathan Dimas 32 Yd Field Goal 7–19
- Q2 6:27HOURe'Shaun Sanford II 56 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)7–16
- Q1 4:15HOUJonathan Dimas 42 Yd Field Goal 7–9
- Q1 6:17ORSTBraden Atkinson 3 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)7–6
- Q1 8:13HOUAmare Thomas 31 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Jonathan Dimas PAT failed)0–6
How the model called it
Past the box score: where Houston won this one.
On to the details. Houston handles Oregon State, 33-20 at TDECU Stadium. Houston was the steadier side of a 13-point win. Conner Weigman threw for 305 yards on 30 attempts with one touchdown and ran nine times for 30 yards and one score.
- PassBraden Atkinson 29/48, 376 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKourdey Glass 6 CAR, 25 YDS
- RecJesse Legree 5 REC, 136 YDS, 1 TD
- PassConner Weigman 20/30, 305 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushMakhi Hughes 17 CAR, 98 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAmare Thomas 8 REC, 133 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHOU up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 9:02ORST +8%
Shotgun #23 A.Newberry rush middle for 4 yards gain to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 8:33HOU +5%
PENALTY HOU False Start (#52 A.Boswell) 5 yards from HOU27 to HOU22. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon State vs. Houston?
Oregon State 20, Houston 33.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (HOU) was correct.
| ORST | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 402 | Total yards | 533 |
| 376 | Passing yards | 305 |
| 26 | Rushing yards | 228 |
| 20 | First downs | 24 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 2-5 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 29/48 | Comp/Att | 20/31 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 9.8 |
| 1.0 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-42 | Penalties | 10-65 |
| 29:10 | Possession | 30:50 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:01 ORST go for it on 4th & 18 at HOU 48. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.54 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:01HOUConner Weigman 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)20–33
- Q4 9:02ORSTAJ Newberry 4 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)20–26
- Q3 0:44ORSTJesse Legree 7 Yd pass from Braden Atkinson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–26
- Q3 6:40HOUMakhi Hughes 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)7–26
- Q2 0:35HOUJonathan Dimas 32 Yd Field Goal 7–19
- Q2 6:27HOURe'Shaun Sanford II 56 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)7–16
- Q1 4:15HOUJonathan Dimas 42 Yd Field Goal 7–9
- Q1 6:17ORSTBraden Atkinson 3 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)7–6
- Q1 8:13HOUAmare Thomas 31 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Jonathan Dimas PAT failed)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HOU Elo 1508, ORST Elo 1266 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HOU -24.1 (94% to win) — 3.1 points clear of HOU's market line of -21. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ORST | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 (#78) | CORE overall | +9.4 (#38) |
| +2 / +3 | offense / defense | +6 / -4 |
| 2.04 | points / drive | 3.09 |
| 2.88 | allowed / drive | 2.10 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +15 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Conner Weigman produced 11 of Houston's 13 explosive plays
Past the box score: where Houston won this one.
The big plays only went one way
Houston produced 13 plays of 15+ yards to Oregon State's 7, led by Conner Weigman (involved in 11), Amare Thomas (involved in 4) and Patrick Overmyer (involved in 3). Houston scored on 54% of its drives to Oregon State's 25%: Conner Weigman (12 pts), Amare Thomas (6 pts) and Makhi Hughes (6 pts). That's what carried Houston.
The difference-makers
Conner Weigman threw for 305 yards on 30 attempts with one touchdown and ran nine times for 30 yards and one score, with three third-down conversions and a hand in 11 plays of 15 yards or more. Amare Thomas caught eight passes for 133 yards, one of them for a touchdown, with two third-down conversions and a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Patrick Overmyer caught six passes for 84 yards — a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. For Oregon State, Braden Atkinson threw for 376 yards on 48 attempts with one touchdown and lost 31 yards on seven carries, though one of them reached the end zone, including two of them from inside the 20, four third-down conversions and a hand in seven plays of 15 yards or more. Jesse Legree caught five passes for 136 yards, one of them for a touchdown — that score from inside the 20 and a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Eric Olsen caught four passes for 54 yards. Javion White was the disruptive one for Houston: 2 sacks, 2 TFLs, 2.5 tackles.
The snaps that mattered
Three plays carried most of the swing. Braden Atkinson's 71-yard throw to Jesse Legree on 1st-and-10 at Q1 07:50. Then Re'Shaun Sanford II's 56-yard run for a touchdown on 1st-and-10 at Q2 06:27. Later, Conner Weigman's dropback that came up short on 2nd-and-7 at Q4 12:47.
How we got here
Houston struck first through Conner Weigman, led 19-7 at the half and Houston got the final points on a late score by Conner Weigman.
Who got home
Two names to keep: Javion White (2 sacks, 2 TFLs, 2.5 tackles) for Houston and Sailasa Vadrawale III (1 INT, 1 fumble rec, 2 PBUs, 4 tackles) for Oregon State. 1 of Houston's 4 sacks came from the defensive line — a change from the 67% it had averaged over the previous 10 seasons.
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Houston was the better team and looked it; Oregon State has fixable problems.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →