Oregon State vs. Boise State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Oregon State gets at Boise State: 24th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 71st at stuffing runs at the line. Where Boise State gets at Oregon State: 43rd at throwing it, against a unit 108th at defending the pass. Boise State is also 31st at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 91st.
How
ORSTattacks
BOIS
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected · 1 game in
ORST4.8%#24 of 138BOIS12.5%#71 of 138
HowBOISattacksORST
- 1
Throw it
throwing it · projected · 1 game in
BOIS+0.29#43 of 138ORST+0.44#108 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected · 1 game in
BOIS13.4%#31 of 138ORST13.5%#91 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected · 1 game in
BOIS20%#58 of 138ORST48%#107 of 138
The two teams
Oregon State
Oregon State is in year 1 under JaMarcus Shephard. The strengths are offensive, led by 24th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 128th at running it, and they are 119th at throwing it.
Oregon State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 15% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line4.8%#24 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it-0.07#128 of 138
- Offensethrowing it+0.29#119 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss21.6%#118 of 138
Boise State
Boise State is in year 3 under Spencer Danielson. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 22nd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 130th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 107th at hitting chunk plays.
Boise State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 14% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line12.1%#22 of 138
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air46%#25 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down49%#26 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.51#130 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.02#107 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BOIS Elo 1569, ORST Elo 1260 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BOIS -18 (87% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ORST93rd132ndBOISBOIS125th130thORSTThrough the air
ORST5th137thBOISBOIS105th125thORSTOn the ground
ORST137th77thBOISBOIS120th126thORSTStaying on the field
ORST121st60thBOISBOIS121st127thORSTTaking care of it
ORST1st88thBOISBOIS1st53rdORST
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOregon State leads 6–5 · 27% have been one-possession games
| ORST | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.8 (#99) | CORE overall | +6.3 (#48) |
| -4 / +4 | offense / defense | +3 / -3 |
| 2.10 | points / drive | 2.25 |
| 3.09 | allowed / drive | 2.85 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 42% |
| +12 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Oregon State vs. Boise State?
Gridpex's model favors Boise State with a 87% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Oregon State vs. Boise State?
The model projects Boise State by 18.0.
What time is Oregon State vs. Boise State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 14, 6:00 PM ET, at Albertsons Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →