Washington State vs. Oregon State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Washington State gets at Oregon State: 62nd at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 119th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Where Oregon State gets at Washington State: 11th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 64th at keeping everything in front of them. Washington State is also 87th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 122nd.
How
WSUattacks
ORST
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected · 1 game in
WSU30%#62 of 138ORST52%#119 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected · 1 game in
WSU1.67#87 of 138ORST4.13#122 of 138
HowORSTattacksWSU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 52% this season, 2 games
ORST1.63#11 of 138WSU1.28#64 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 24% this season, 2 games
ORST7.9%#29 of 138WSU20.3%#68 of 138
The two teams
Washington State
Washington State is in year 1 under Kirby Moore. The strengths are defensive, led by 34th at defending the pass. The way in is 133rd at hitting chunk plays, and they are 104th at shutting down the ground game.
Washington State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 21% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensethrowing it+0.17#34 of 138
- Defensesurviving second and twelve34%#35 of 138
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points2.59#35 of 138
Soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays0.98#133 of 138
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground47%#104 of 138
Oregon State
Oregon State is in year 1 under JaMarcus Shephard. The strengths are offensive, led by 11th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 136th at running it, and they are 126th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Oregon State has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.63#11 of 138
- Offensegetting stopped at the line7.9%#29 of 138
Soft spots
- Offenserunning it-0.08#136 of 138
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points3.45#126 of 138
- Offensethe push the line gets2.86#123 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORST Elo 1285, WSU Elo 1533 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORST +7.1 (33% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
WSU135th112thORSTORST71st123rdWSUThrough the air
WSU131st114thORSTORST3rd99thWSUOn the ground
WSU121st120thORSTORST137th131stWSUStaying on the field
WSU137th131stORSTORST128th125thWSUTaking care of it
WSU104th46thORSTORST21st76thWSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWashington State leads 56–44–3 · 42% have been one-possession games
| WSU | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.4 (#71) | CORE overall | -1.5 (#78) |
| -5 / -5 | offense / defense | +2 / +3 |
| 0.46 | points / drive | 2.04 |
| 2.68 | allowed / drive | 2.88 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -6 | pass over expected | +15 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Washington State vs. Oregon State?
Gridpex's model favors Washington State with a 67% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Washington State vs. Oregon State?
The model projects Washington State by 7.1.
What time is Washington State vs. Oregon State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 17, 6:00 PM ET, at Reser Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →