New Mexico vs. Wyoming Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where New Mexico gets at Wyoming: 17th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 110th at stuffing runs at the line. Wyoming projects no clear way in against New Mexico. New Mexico is also 44th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 105th.
How
UNMattacks
WYO
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
UNM#17 of 138WYO#110 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
UNM#44 of 138WYO#105 of 138
The two teams
New Mexico
New Mexico is in year 2 under Jason Eck. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 17th at staying out of the backfield.
New Mexico has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#17projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#25projected
Wyoming
Wyoming is in year 3 under Jay Sawvel. The way in is 128th at surviving second and twelve, and they are 128th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Wyoming has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#128projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#128projected
- Offensethrowing it#127projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WYO Elo 1300, UNM Elo 1558 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WYO +11 (25% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UNM74th104thWYOWYO117th4thUNMThrough the air
UNM115th95thWYOWYO127th2ndUNMOn the ground
UNM21st97thWYOWYO86th16thUNMStaying on the field
UNM49th97thWYOWYO129th6thUNMTaking care of it
UNM21st76thWYOWYO133rd1stUNM
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWyoming leads 41–36 · Wyoming has won 3 straight · 40% have been one-possession games
| UNM | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.5 (#42) | CORE overall | -12.9 (#116) |
| -1 / -9 | offense / defense | -10 / +3 |
| 4.11 | points / drive | 1.00 |
| 0.78 | allowed / drive | 3.50 |
| 11% | three-and-outs | 50% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -16 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win New Mexico vs. Wyoming?
Gridpex's model favors New Mexico with a 75% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for New Mexico vs. Wyoming?
The model projects New Mexico by 11.0.
What time is New Mexico vs. Wyoming and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 21, 9:00 PM ET, at War Memorial Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →