Central Michigan vs. New Mexico: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CMUTeam statsUNM
- Q4 4:23CMUNasir Williams 23 Yd Run (Caden VanHuis Kick)7–38
- Q4 9:31UNMGrant Glasgow 49 Yd Field Goal 0–38
- Q3 4:03UNMBailen George 11 Yd pass from Luke Moga (Grant Glasgow Kick)0–35
- Q3 7:05UNMJames Laubstein 3 Yd Run (Scottre Humphrey Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–28
- Q2 1:04UNMGrant Glasgow 46 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 8:19UNMGrant Glasgow 48 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 12:56UNMJames Laubstein 1 Yd Run (Grant Glasgow Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:18UNMScottre Humphrey 7 Yd Run (Grant Glasgow Kick)0–7
How it was won
Moga’s passing line
Luke Moga completed 13 of 17 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown, out‑producing CMU’s Jadyn Glasser’s 4‑of‑10 for 16 yards.
Fourth‑down discipline
New Mexico attempted five fourth‑downs and converted all, losing no points, while Central Michigan’s eight attempts also yielded zero points lost.
New Mexico forced two turnovers and had zero penalties, holding the ball 37:29, whereas CMU turned it over twice and racked up nine penalties.
Spread cover
New Mexico was an 11‑point favorite and won by 31, comfortably covering the -11 line and pushing the total under 47.
How the model called it
A comfortable New Mexico win. The film says it was less about fireworks than you'd think.
There was no drama to speak of. New Mexico dismantles Central Michigan, 38-7 at University Stadium (NM). New Mexico led from start to finish and never let Central Michigan within striking distance. James Laubstein ran six times for 18 yards and two scores.
- PassJadyn Glasser 4/10, 16 YDS
- RushAngel Flores 10 CAR, 27 YDS
- RecNasir Williams 1 REC, 11 YDS
- PassLuke Moga 13/17, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- RushScottre Humphrey 13 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBailen George 4 REC, 36 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNM up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:18UNM +9%
Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush middle for 7 yards gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 12:56UNM +5%
#12 J.Laubstein rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. New Mexico?
Central Michigan 7, New Mexico 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNM) was correct.
| CMU | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| 149 | Total yards | 364 |
| 30 | Passing yards | 159 |
| 119 | Rushing yards | 205 |
| 9 | First downs | 28 |
| 2-11 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 7/16 | Comp/Att | 17/25 |
| 1.9 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-84 | Penalties | 4-20 |
| 22:31 | Possession | 37:29 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:23CMUNasir Williams 23 Yd Run (Caden VanHuis Kick)7–38
- Q4 9:31UNMGrant Glasgow 49 Yd Field Goal 0–38
- Q3 4:03UNMBailen George 11 Yd pass from Luke Moga (Grant Glasgow Kick)0–35
- Q3 7:05UNMJames Laubstein 3 Yd Run (Scottre Humphrey Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–28
- Q2 1:04UNMGrant Glasgow 46 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 8:19UNMGrant Glasgow 48 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 12:56UNMJames Laubstein 1 Yd Run (Grant Glasgow Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:18UNMScottre Humphrey 7 Yd Run (Grant Glasgow Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNM Elo 1496, CMU Elo 1321 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNM -15.7 (84% to win) — 4.7 points clear of UNM's market line of -11. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CMU | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.4 (#116) | CORE overall | +7.4 (#41) |
| -11 / +1 | offense / defense | -2 / -9 |
| 0.78 | points / drive | 4.11 |
| 4.11 | allowed / drive | 0.78 |
| 56% | three-and-outs | 11% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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New Mexico dismantles Central Michigan, 38-7
A comfortable New Mexico win. The film says it was less about fireworks than you'd think.
One team finished its drives
New Mexico scored on 70% of its drives to Central Michigan's 10%, led by James Laubstein (12 pts), Scottre Humphrey (6 pts) and Luke Moga (6 pts). New Mexico produced 7 plays of 15+ yards to Central Michigan's 2, led by Toa Fa'avae (involved in 3), Luke Moga (involved in 2) and Scottre Humphrey (involved in 1). Stacked together, it was never close.
The difference-makers
James Laubstein ran six times for 18 yards and two scores, with two of them from inside the 20 and three third-down conversions. Scottre Humphrey ran 13 times for 64 yards and one score — that score from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. Luke Moga threw for 116 yards on 17 attempts with one touchdown, with that score from inside the 20. For Central Michigan, Nasir Williams ran one times for 23 yards and one score and caught one pass for 11 yards. Jadyn Glasser threw for 16 yards on 10 attempts. Angel H Flores threw for 14 yards on six attempts and ran 10 times for 27 yards, including two third-down conversions. Xavier Slayton was the disruptive one for New Mexico: 1 INT, 1 tackle.
What Central Michigan has to fix
The problems had names: Jadyn Glasser (1 lost fumble) and Angel H Flores (1 interception).
The disruptive ones
Two names to keep, all for New Mexico: Xavier Slayton (1 INT, 1 tackle) and Darren Agu (1 sack, 1 TFL, 2 tackles).
How we got here
New Mexico struck first through Scottre Humphrey, led 20-0 at the half and Central Michigan got the final points on a late touchdown by Nasir Williams.
How it graded
The closing line had New Mexico -11.0. New Mexico covered. The total was 47.5; the teams combined for 45, an under. James Laubstein accounted for 12 of New Mexico's points.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
New Mexico cleared the bar with room to spare; Central Michigan goes back to the drawing board. Nasir Williams was responsible for 6 of Central Michigan's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →