UNLV vs. New Mexico Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Where New Mexico gets at UNLV: 7th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 128th at stuffing runs at the line. UNLV projects no clear way in against New Mexico. New Mexico is also 17th at running it, against a unit 136th.
How
UNMattacks
UNLV
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected · 1 game in
UNM5.3%#7 of 138UNLV12.5%#128 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected · 1 game in
UNM+0.47#17 of 138UNLV+0.22#136 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected · 1 game in
UNM4.89#38 of 138UNLV4.12#125 of 138
The two teams
UNLV
UNLV throws it: Dan Mullen's offenses have been pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The way in is 136th at defending the run, and they are 136th at holding the line of scrimmage.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −31.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UNLV has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 31% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Defenserunning it+0.22#136 of 138
- Defensethe push the line gets3.79#136 of 138
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points4.12#125 of 138
New Mexico
New Mexico is in year 2 under Jason Eck. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 7th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 110th at keeping everything in front of them.
New Mexico has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 16% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line5.3%#7 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.47#17 of 138
- Defensethe push the line gets1.39#20 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.47#110 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNM Elo 1558, UNLV Elo 1480 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNM -1.4 (53% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UNLV110th4thUNMUNM74th103rdUNLVThrough the air
UNLV93rd2ndUNMUNM116th88thUNLVOn the ground
UNLV68th16thUNMUNM21st108thUNLVStaying on the field
UNLV93rd6thUNMUNM49th106thUNLVTaking care of it
UNLV104th1stUNMUNM1st76thUNLV
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUNLV leads 15–13 · 46% have been one-possession games
| UNLV | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.9 (#90) | CORE overall | +7.5 (#42) |
| -7 / -2 | offense / defense | -1 / -9 |
| 1.37 | points / drive | 4.11 |
| 2.27 | allowed / drive | 0.78 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 11% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win UNLV vs. New Mexico?
Gridpex's model favors New Mexico with a 53% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UNLV vs. New Mexico?
The model projects New Mexico by 1.4.
What time is UNLV vs. New Mexico and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ET, at University Stadium (NM).
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →