vs Stanford · Wk 3Win prob 71%Model -9.1Schedule & Results
TULNTulaneW17-3✓Wk 2@
ILLIllinoisW31-27✗Wk 3vsSTANStanford-9.171%Wk 4vsW&MWilliam & MaryWk 6@
GTGeorgia Tech+0.449%Wk 7vs
UNCNorth Carolina-14.483%Wk 8@
UVAVirginia+21.78%Wk 9vs
BCBoston College-12.378%Wk 10@
NCSUNC State+5.437%Wk 11@
MIAMiami+21.38%Wk 12vs
CLEMClemson+5.337%Wk 13@
WAKEWake Forest+3.841%ACC Standings
Standings →
Team Leaders
Walker EgetPassing337 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
Nate SheppardRushing374 yds · 3 TD · 6.3 avg
Jonah BurtonReceiving7 rec · 114 yds · 1 TD
Nick Morris Jr.Tackles15 tackles · 0.5 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Duke
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Duke rode Nate Sheppard for 227 yards on the ground
Tulane's best matchup belongs to a roster that left
Roster · 102 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Walker Eget | QB | SR | 6'3" | 235 | Santa Clarita, CA |
| 10 | Dan Mahan | QB | FR | 6'2" | 200 | Burlington, NC |
| 11 | Ari Patu | QB | SR | 6'4" | 230 | Folsom, CA |
| 12 | Blaine Hipa | QB | SR | 6'2" | 200 | Kailua, HI |
| 13 | Terry Walker III | QB | FR | 6'4" | 190 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 16 | Lawrence Gardner | QB | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Dallas, TX |
| 0 | CJ Campbell Jr. | RB | SR | 5'10" | 200 | Kaplan, LA |
| 20 | Nate Sheppard | RB | SO | 5'10" | 205 | Mandeville, LA |
| 22 | Jayvian Tanelus | RB | FR | 5'10" | 195 | Naples, FL |
| 24 | Wilhelm Daal II | RB | SR | 6'1" | 215 | Amityville, NY |
| 26 | CJ Givers | RB | FR | 5'11" | 200 | Roswell, GA |
| 28 | Cole Denson | RB | SO | 6'0" | 200 | Rye, NY |
| 83 | Paul Holyfield Jr. | RB | SR | 6'0" | 200 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 1 | Jamien Little | WR | FR | 6'2" | 185 | Hickory, NC |
| 3 | Blake Rohrer | WR | SR | 6'3" | 215 | Woodbury, MN |
| 4 | Jaivon Solomon | WR | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Gray, GA |
| 5 | Javen Nicholas | WR | SR | 5'9" | 190 | New Orleans, LA |
| 6 | Jonah Burton | WR | SR | 5'11" | 210 | Simi Valley, CA |
| 7 | Kavon Simmons | WR | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Wake Forest, NC |
| 8 | Jayden Moore | WR | SO | 5'8" | 190 | Sykesville, MD |
| 9 | Kavon Conciauro | WR | FR | 6'4" | 200 | Reidsville, GA |
| 17 | Jared Richardson | WR | SR | 6'2" | 220 | Blakeslee, PA |
| 18 | Brody Keefe | WR | FR | 6'3" | 200 | Charlotte, NC |
| 21 | Qeanu Johnson | WR | FR | 5'11" | 195 | Hamden, CT |
| 88 | Paxon Kettering | WR | SO | 6'4" | 200 | Bend, OR |
| 89 | Jackson Maggiore | WR | FR | 6'0" | 180 | San Diego, CA |
| 15 | Jake Taylor | TE | SR | 6'5" | 240 | Apex, NC |
| 44 | Nate Kurisky | TE | SR | 6'3" | 245 | Leesburg, VA |
| 46 | Tony Boggs | TE | JR | 6'4" | 295 | Wartrace, TN |
| 80 | Benjamin Moseley | TE | FR | 6'4" | 200 | Centre, AL |
| 81 | Brett Elliott | TE | SO | 6'3" | 240 | Holliston, MA |
| 84 | Jack Gaskins | TE | FR | 6'3" | 240 | Mclean, VA |
| 85 | Jeremiah Hasley | TE | SR | 6'3" | 250 | Gibsonia, PA |
| 54 | Daniel Boyd | OL | FR | 6'2" | 305 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 55 | Ryan Daly | OL | SO | 6'0" | 295 | Venice, FL |
| 56 | Nick Del Grande | OL | SR | 6'4" | 300 | Lancaster, PA |
| 60 | Sean Stover | OL | FR | 6'4" | 305 | Prosper, TX |
| 62 | Cole Allen | OL | FR | 6'5" | 300 | Jackson, MS |
| 63 | Bradley Smith | OL | SO | 6'2" | 305 | Newnan, GA |
| 64 | Jordan Larsen | OL | SR | 6'3" | 310 | Harrisburg, SD |
| 65 | Kai Jacobowitz | OL | FR | 6'7" | 315 | Carlsbad, CA |
| 66 | Caleb Dorris | OL | JR | 6'6" | 310 | White House, TN |
| 71 | Jamin Brown | OL | FR | 6'3" | 300 | Gadsden, AL |
| 72 | Matt Craycraft | OL | SR | 6'3" | 305 | Dallas, TX |
| 74 | Reagan McCranie | OL | JR | 6'2" | 315 | Rutherfordton, NC |
| 75 | Micah Sahakian | OL | SR | 6'5" | 320 | Mount Prospect, IL |
| 76 | Gemyel Allen | OL | SO | 6'3" | 320 | Buford, GA |
| 77 | Braden Miller | OL | SR | 6'6" | 315 | Aurora, CO |
| 78 | Nathan Kutufaris | OL | FR | 6'5" | 300 | Springfield, PA |
| 79 | Roman Fina | OL | FR | 6'4" | 295 | Tucson, AZ |
| 10 | Tyshon Reed | DE | JR | 6'3" | 250 | Moultrie, GA |
| 12 | Bryce Davis | DE | SO | 6'3" | 265 | Greensboro, NC |
| 13 | Obinna Umeh | DE | FR | 6'3" | 230 | Houston, TX |
| 15 | Kevin O'Connor | DE | JR | 6'4" | 245 | Easton, MD |
| 18 | Kobe Smith | DE | SO | 6'3" | 225 | Chattanooga, TN |
| 43 | Semaj Turner | DE | SO | 6'3" | 255 | Winston-Salem, NC |
| 90 | Tommy Rupley | DE | FR | 6'4" | 240 | Acton, MA |
| 93 | Sampson Onuoha | DE | FR | 6'3" | 240 | London |
| 98 | Jaylen Carl | DE | SO | 6'4" | 250 | High Point, NC |
| 44 | David Anderson | DT | JR | 6'4" | 290 | Hampton, VA |
| 50 | Chadwicke Cannon Jr. | DT | FR | 6'1" | 280 | Port Orange, FL |
| 55 | Julius Columbus | DT | FR | 6'1" | 285 | Gainesville, GA |
| 88 | Bariate Kara | DT | FR | 6'5" | 290 | Loganville, GA |
| 91 | Owen Wafle | DT | SO | 6'2" | 285 | Middletown, NJ |
| 95 | Preston Watson | DT | JR | 6'1" | 300 | Lake Mary, FL |
| 97 | Ayden Cain | DT | FR | 6'1" | 280 | Gainesville, GA |
| 99 | Dakota Quinonez | DT | SR | 6'1" | 290 | Moore, SC |
| 7 | Nick Morris Jr. | LB | SR | 6'3" | 235 | Austin, TX |
| 11 | Derrick Brown Jr. | LB | SO | 6'2" | 225 | Waxhaw, NC |
| 19 | Jon Morris | LB | SO | 6'2" | 215 | Fairfield, CT |
| 24 | Bradley Gompers | LB | SO | 6'5" | 230 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 30 | Will Felder Jr. | LB | FR | 6'0" | 195 | Willingboro, NJ |
| 31 | Elliott Schaper | LB | SO | 6'3" | 220 | Austin, TX |
| 32 | Tony Grimmer | LB | FR | 5'11" | 205 | Alpine, UT |
| 33 | Colsen Gatten | LB | FR | 6'1" | 220 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 34 | Luke Mergott | LB | JR | 6'3" | 225 | Berlin, MD |
| 40 | Asher Wasserman | LB | FR | 6'2" | 225 | Hamden, CT |
| 42 | Kendall Johnson | LB | JR | 6'3" | 225 | Gaithersburg, MD |
| 0 | Dylan Flowers | CB | SR | 5'10" | 185 | Playa Del Rey, CA |
| 1 | Kyon Loud | CB | SO | 6'2" | 190 | Richmond, CA |
| 3 | Landan Callahan | CB | SO | 5'11" | 185 | Rural Hall, NC |
| 4 | Evan Smith | CB | SR | 5'10" | 185 | Birmingham, AL |
| 5 | Kimari Robinson | CB | JR | 5'10" | 180 | Miramar, FL |
| 9 | Che Ojarikre | CB | SR | 6'2" | 205 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 23 | Kolbe Harmon | CB | FR | 5'10" | 180 | Brentwood, TN |
| 26 | Tyson Sanford | CB | FR | 5'11" | 195 | Suwanee, GA |
| 28 | Kaleb Lanier | CB | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Decatur, GA |
| 2 | Patrick Smith-Young | S | SR | 5'9" | 184 | Sugar Land, TX |
| 6 | Leon Griffin III | S | JR | 5'11" | 195 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 8 | DaShawn Stone | S | JR | 6'3" | 195 | Asheville, NC |
| 21 | KD Cotton | S | FR | 5'9" | 185 | Charlotte, NC |
| 29 | Brady Winter | S | FR | 5'11" | 200 | New York, NY |
| 35 | Andrew Pellicciotta | S | SO | 5'11" | 200 | Malvern, PA |
| 37 | Lyrik Pettis | S | FR | 6'0" | 195 | Shelby, NC |
| 25 | Gavin Strange | PK | FR | 5'11" | 175 | Southlake, TX |
| 31 | Mika Levy | PK | FR | 6'3" | 240 | Mclean, VA |
| 38 | Ashton Zamani | PK | FR | 5'11" | 165 | Hidden Hills, CA |
| 39 | Cosme Salas | PK | SO | 5'7" | 185 | Miami, FL |
| 41 | Kade Reynoldson | P | JR | 6'2" | 195 | Queensland, QLD |
| 27 | Jack Yates | LS | SR | 6'0" | 215 | Hudson, MA |
| 49 | Jack Ronilo | LS | JR | 6'1" | 215 | Birmingham, AL |
| 52 | Jake Fitzgerald | LS | SR | 6'0" | 205 | La Canada, CA |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Duke throws it: Manny Diaz's offenses have been pass-leaning across 5 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 24th at stuffing runs at the line. The way in is 123rd at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 119th at closing out passing downs.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −22.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Duke has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#24projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#123projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#119projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#117projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 9 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.91#90
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.31 / 1.20
- Power / stuff (off)
- 71.4% / 21.4%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 14.4%#91
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 7.2% / 7.2%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.08#67 | 0.11#88 | 0.54#79 |
| Defense | 0.12#109 | -0.03#44 | 0.25#49 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play-0.059th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.0062nd
- Offense success rate29%7th
- Defense success rate allowed31%70th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs32%5th
- Offense success — passing downs26%26th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs47%36th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs0%99th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.253rd
- Defense explosiveness allowed0.8098th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.8418th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.052nd
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.046th
- Defense line yards allowed3.036th
- Offense highlight yards1.257th
- Defense highlight yards allowed1.329th
- Offense power success1.099th
- Defense power success allowed1.023rd
- Offense stuff rate0.1836th
- Defense stuff rate0.1319th
Third down
- Third down conversion47%57th
- Third down distance faced7.042nd
- Third down conversion allowed21%83rd
- Third down distance forced9.591st
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.0136th
- Net success rate — second half0.0138th
Drives
- Points per drive1.435th
- Points per drive allowed0.2593rd
- Average starting field position3274th
- Opponent starting field position2568th
- Available yards gained48%53rd
- Available yards allowed27%88th
- Scoring opportunities per drive83%60th
- Scoring opportunities allowed67%84th
- Points per scoring opportunity1.726th
- Points allowed per opportunity0.3895th
- Three-and-out rate33%36th
- Three-and-outs forced42%85th
Roster
- Returning usage22%23rd
- Returning EPA75.639th
- Team talent composite66850th
- Recruiting class rank71.049th
- Recruiting class points18949th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.103 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 12 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 34.3%
- Expected, given the spots
- 48.8%
- Over expected
- -14.5
- Fourth down vs peers
- +26
- Fourth down vs the model
- +17
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Duke is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Duke in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.8 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 9-5 | 6-2 | 64% | 7.8 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 9-4 | 5-3 | 69% | 7.0 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 62% | 6.9 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 9-4 | 5-3 | 69% | 8.4 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 3-9 | 0-8 | 25% | 4.1 | -1.1 |
| 2020 | 2-9 | 1-9 | 18% | 2.2 | -0.2 |
| 2019 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 42% | 5.1 | -0.1 |
| 2018 | 8-5 | 3-5 | 62% | 7.4 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 7-6 | 3-5 | 54% | 7.4 | -0.4 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 7.0-5.0. Wins the ACC in 1.7%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.
Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.
down 1.3 points since preseason — won 17-3 over Tulane against an expected margin of +12, so +1.7 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 23% where the average ACC team is 44%.
- The ACC takes 1.54 bids in an average season, and four or more in 0.7%.
Duke’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk11at Miami18.1
- wk8at Virginia9.4
- wk2at Illinois7.1
- wk6at Georgia Tech6.5
- wk13at Wake Forest6.1
- wk12vs Clemson6.1
Who to root for
Games Duke is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk7Florida State over Miami1.3
- wk12Virginia Tech over Miami1.0
- wk5Arkansas over Texas A&M0.8
- wk7South Florida over Kent State0.8
- wk2Tulane over South Alabama0.8
- wk9North Carolina over Miami0.7
ACC
0-0 in league play, projected 4.6-4.48 of 17 by title oddsThe ACC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 37% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk11Duke at Miami10.3
- wk8Duke at Virginia4.4
- wk6Duke at Georgia Tech2.8
- wk13Duke at Wake Forest2.7
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole ACC race →
If not the playoff, then
Duke is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 2.2% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Pop-Tarts Bowl8.5%
- Pinstripe Bowl8.4%
- Sun Bowl8.1%
- Military Bowl7.6%
- Holiday Bowl7.3%
- Duke's Mayo Bowl6.6%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 8 have sent Duke a player since 2010 — 16 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Duke's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.