NC State vs. Virginia: Final Score & Recap

Brandyn Hillman's strip at the 7 was the most damaging snap of the day

NC State reached the doorstep once in the first half. At 3:41 of the second quarter, CJ Bailey pulled it down and ran right for 12 yards to the Virginia 7 — and Hillman punched the ball out, with Virginia recovering at the spot. By expected points that was the single most destructive play either offense ran, about four points wiped off the board in one motion. Hillman had already intercepted Bailey at the NC State 32 at 4:47 of the first, on a throw Fisher Camac got a hand to first.

Popo Aguirre played well enough to win a different game

Aguirre finished with 11 tackles and was in on nine snaps that cost Virginia value, about four points denied by himself. Harvey Dyson III added a half-sack, a tackle for loss and three stops; Ronnie Royal III had four tackles and a breakup. The evidence is in the third-down column: Virginia converted three of fourteen. On the downs where defenses are supposed to get off the field, NC State's front won the afternoon.

So the Cavaliers stopped honoring third down as the end of a drive. Pribula sneaked a yard on fourth-and-1 at 2:05 of the third. Judah Middlebrook got two on fourth-and-1 at 14:59 of the fourth. Pribula found Tylyric Coleman for 11 on fourth-and-4 at 12:46, and Xay Davis pushed for two on fourth-and-1 at 8:22, then scored from a yard out at 7:44. Four fourth downs, four conversions, and a defense that kept winning downs that no longer decided anything.

Vander Ploog's 21 yards on third-and-21 was the best throw either team made

At 5:43 of the third, facing third-and-21, Bailey threw short right to Ploog, who caught it at the Virginia 5 and got to the 1 before Hillman brought him down — worth close to four points of expected value. Will Wilson ran it in from a yard out at 4:59 and Deandre Desinor caught the two-point conversion. That drive is the entire NC State scoreboard. Bailey's line around it: 84 passing yards on 23 attempts, 33 rushing on 10 carries.

The receivers never had a chance to change that. Joshisa Trader caught two of four targets for 19 yards, Preston Douglas three for 13, Davion Dozier two for 14, Keenan Jackson two for 6. Ploog's 21-yarder was the longest completion NC State produced. Jayden Scott ran seven times for 20 yards. The Wolfpack averaged 15.1 yards per drive to Virginia's 32.3 and went three-and-out on half of their twelve possessions.

The 7, the 13, the 11, and the 12

Four times NC State got inside striking distance and came away with nothing. The fumble at the Virginia 7. A drive that stalled 13 yards from the end zone. Another that died at the 11. And one last push that reached the Virginia 12 before the clock ran to 1:48 in the fourth. Twelve drives, one score — an 8.3% scoring rate against Virginia's 50%, with the two teams starting from nearly identical field position all night.

We had Virginia by 10 and gave the Cavaliers a 74% chance to win it, leaning on a roster-talent edge worth about five points. Right side, badly wrong size: the margin came in at 26. What we did not price was Pribula as a runner, which is the input that turned a projected one-score win into a game that stopped being competitive in the third quarter.

Xavier Brown scored twice and was barely the third-most important Cavalier

Brown ran eight times for 40 yards and a touchdown — the one-yard punch-in at 2:37 of the first — and caught two passes for 58 more, including the 45-yard score from Pribula at 11:26 of the second. That is twelve points from a back who was not the offense's center of gravity, which is the more useful thing Virginia learned. NC State learned that Bailey averaged under four yards a throw, and that the ball he lost at the 7 was the game.