CJ Bailey is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for NC State. CJ's 2025 season ranks in the 45th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 442 plays — a average rate for the QB. A four-star recruit in the class of 2024, CJ has shown flashes of the talent that made him a coveted recruit.
What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.46Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.05Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.51Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So CJ Bailey's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
Recruiting Profile· Class of 2024
- Stars
- ★★★★★
- 247 composite
- 0.8933
- National rank
- #434
- High school
- Chaminade-Madonna
- Hometown
- Hollywood, FL
Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.
2025 Production
Air yards
Where the ball goes, and how much of the gain is the throw rather than the run after it.
The ball travels 10.0 yards in the air on an average throw — 2.2 yards deeper than the median. Another 2.1 comes after the catch.
Where he throws
attempts · completion rate · yardsDepth and direction come from CFBD’s passing detail, which is backfilled after the games: this covers weeks 1–2 only. Spikes, throwaways and intentional grounding are excluded before any average.
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers
- Efficiency45
- Volume100
- Dual-Threat100
- Consistency77
- Clutch81
A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.19 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 0.99 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Campbell.
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.29
- Passing downs
- 0.49
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.38 / 0.40
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.