Syracuse vs. NC State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Syracuse gets at NC State: 68th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 137th at keeping everything in front of them. Where NC State gets at Syracuse: 21st at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 115th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. NC State is also 22nd at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 113th.
How
SYRattacks
NCSU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
SYR#68 of 138NCSU#137 of 138
HowNCSUattacksSYR
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
NCSU#21 of 138SYR#115 of 138 - 2
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
NCSU#22 of 138SYR#113 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
NCSU#26 of 138SYR#113 of 138
The two teams
Syracuse
Syracuse is in year 3 under Fran Brown. The way in is 130th at keeping a clean pocket, and they are 127th at running it.
Syracuse has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#130projected
- Offenserunning it#127projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#127projected
NC State
NC State throws it: Dave Doeren's offenses have been pass-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 9th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −31.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
NC State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#9projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#17projected
- Offensethrowing it#18projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#137projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NCSU Elo 1506, SYR Elo 1284 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NCSU -10.6 (75% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
SYR79th54thNCSUNCSU22nd16thSYRThrough the air
SYR34th18thNCSUNCSU94th36thSYROn the ground
SYR60th96thNCSUNCSU23rd19thSYRStaying on the field
SYR34th12thNCSUNCSU31st50thSYRTaking care of it
SYR95th53rdNCSUNCSU95th30thSYR
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNC State leads 13–4 · Syracuse has won 2 straight · 47% have been one-possession games
| SYR | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.5 (#95) | CORE overall | -1.1 (#75) |
| -6 / +1 | offense / defense | -1 / +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Syracuse vs. NC State?
Gridpex's model favors NC State with a 75% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Syracuse vs. NC State?
The model projects NC State by 10.6.
What time is Syracuse vs. NC State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Carter-Finley Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →