#2Zack Moss

RB·Utah·2019 20183.7 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Zack Moss is a 2-year Featured Back for Utah. Zack's 2019 season ranks in the 68th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 254 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Zack Moss's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Rushing

1416 Rush yards15 Rush TD235 Carries6.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

28 Receptions388 Rec yards2 Rec TD13.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs RB peers

Efficiency68
Volume89
Explosiveness60
Consistency58
Receiving54

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)68th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency58th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.38 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 2.09 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Oregon State (SP+ -1).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@BYU	W30-12	1.3	29	187	6.4	1	2	7	0	0.43
2	vsNorthern Illinois	W35-17	-13.9	18	80	4.4	2	—	—	—	0.03
3	vsIdaho State	W31-0	—	10	106	10.6	1	—	—	—	0.80
4	@USC	L23-30	13.1	6	20	3.3	0	—	—	—	-0.12
7	@Oregon State	W52-7	-0.7	5	121	24.2	2	—	—	—	2.09
8	vsArizona State	W21-3	6.3	25	99	4.0	2	3	78	0	0.25
9	vsCalifornia	W35-0	-2.6	17	115	6.8	2	3	89	0	0.48
10	@Washington	W33-28	18.3	27	100	3.7	1	5	41	1	0.17
12	vsUCLA	W49-3	-3.9	17	127	7.5	2	4	73	0	0.70
13	@Arizona	W35-7	-8.0	26	203	7.8	1	4	32	0	0.34
14	vsColorado	W45-15	-4.1	20	88	4.4	1	1	-3	0	-0.07
15	vsOregon	L15-37	19.0	19	113	5.9	0	4	57	1	0.10
1	vsTexas	L10-38	12.0	16	57	3.6	0	2	14	0	-0.00

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

31.2%

Passing plays

9.3%

Rushing plays

44.8%

Standard downs

33.4%

Passing downs

25.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.26
Passing downs: 0.48
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.79 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2019 · 22 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Utah	3.0	0.380	—	66.1
2019	Utah	3.7	0.360	-0.02	85.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.