#28Breece Hall

RB·Iowa State·2021 20204.5 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Breece Hall is a 2-year Featured Back for Iowa State. Breece's 2020 season ranks in the 48th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 302 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Breece Hall's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Rushing

1573 Rush yards21 Rush TD279 Carries5.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

23 Receptions180 Rec yards2 Rec TD7.8 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs RB peers

Efficiency48
Volume100
Explosiveness52
Consistency76
Receiving36

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)48th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency76th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.12 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.60 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs TCU (SP+ 2).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Jonathan Taylor	Wisconsin	2017	307	0.350	4.8	107.4
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Jonathan Taylor	Wisconsin	2018	297	0.360	5.0	106.9
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
2	vsLouisiana	L14-31	8.1	20	103	5.2	1	3	15	0	0.35
4	@TCU	W37-34	1.6	18	155	8.6	3	1	5	0	0.60
5	vsOklahoma	W37-30	17.8	28	139	5.0	2	1	8	0	0.15
6	vsTexas Tech	W31-15	-4.2	27	135	5.0	2	1	14	0	0.21
8	@Oklahoma State	L21-24	14.2	20	185	9.3	1	4	8	0	0.11
9	@Kansas	W52-22	-16.3	21	185	8.8	2	3	11	0	0.34
10	vsBaylor	W38-31	1.3	31	133	4.3	2	2	27	1	0.12
12	vsKansas State	W45-0	2.0	15	135	9.0	2	—	—	—	0.56
13	@Texas	W23-20	9.7	20	91	4.6	1	—	—	—	0.11
14	vsWest Virginia	W42-6	8.5	22	97	4.4	1	3	56	1	0.12
16	vsOklahoma	L21-27	17.8	23	79	3.4	2	3	26	0	0.04
1	vsOregon	W34-17	18.1	34	136	4.0	2	2	10	0	0.07

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

37.2%

Passing plays

7.3%

Rushing plays

63.3%

Standard downs

44.8%

Passing downs

16.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.17
Passing downs: 0.29
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.19 / 0.19

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 — 2021 · 23 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2020	Iowa State	4.5	0.340	—	102.3
2021	Iowa State	4.5	0.400	+0.06	90.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.