#26Saquon Barkley

RB·Penn State·2017 20163.9 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Saquon Barkley is a 2-year Featured Back for Penn State. Saquon's 2016 season ranks in the 45th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 303 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Saquon Barkley's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Rushing

1496 Rush yards18 Rush TD272 Carries5.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

28 Receptions402 Rec yards4 Rec TD14.4 Yards/rec

Returns

3 Kick returns74 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs RB peers

Efficiency45
Volume93
Explosiveness50
Consistency53
Receiving50

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)45th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency53th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.25 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.80 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Purdue (SP+ -11).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Jonathan Taylor	Wisconsin	2017	307	0.350	4.8	107.4
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsKent State	W33-13	-12.0	22	105	4.8	1	1	17	0	0.24
2	@Pittsburgh	L39-42	13.1	20	85	4.3	4	2	45	1	0.14
3	vsTemple	W34-27	11.9	9	68	7.6	1	2	7	0	0.04
4	@Michigan	L10-49	24.4	15	59	3.9	0	5	77	0	0.10
5	vsMinnesota	W29-26	12.6	20	63	3.2	1	1	-3	0	-0.38
6	vsMaryland	W38-14	-0.6	31	202	6.5	1	—	—	—	0.04
8	vsOhio State	W24-21	22.4	12	99	8.3	0	—	—	—	0.35
9	@Purdue	W62-24	-11.0	18	207	11.5	2	3	70	0	0.80
10	vsIowa	W41-14	10.3	20	167	8.4	1	1	44	1	0.71
11	@Indiana	W45-31	4.6	33	58	1.8	2	2	34	0	-0.17
12	@Rutgers	W39-0	-14.9	16	92	5.8	1	2	25	0	0.37
13	vsMichigan State	W45-12	7.4	12	14	1.2	1	2	11	0	-0.09
14	vsWisconsin	W38-31	16.1	19	83	4.4	1	2	20	1	0.30
1	vsUSC	L49-52	23.6	25	194	7.8	2	5	55	1	0.34

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

32.6%

Passing plays

9.0%

Rushing plays

52.7%

Standard downs

40.1%

Passing downs

15.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.13
Passing downs: 0.57
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.68 / 0.13

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2017 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Penn State	3.9	0.340	—	97.9
2017	Penn State	5.2	0.410	+0.07	98.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.