#2Zack Moss

RB·Utah·2019 20183.0 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Zack Moss is a 2-year Featured Back for Utah. Zack's 2018 season ranks in the 57th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 182 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Zack Moss's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Rushing

1092 Rush yards11 Rush TD179 Carries6.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

8 Receptions50 Rec yards1 Rec TD6.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs RB peers

Efficiency57
Volume84
Explosiveness62
Consistency81
Receiving23

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)57th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.18 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.61 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs UCLA (SP+ -0).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsWeber State	W41-10	—	16	150	9.4	1	3	24	1	0.46
2	@Northern Illinois	W17-6	-2.7	16	66	4.1	1	1	6	0	0.00
3	vsWashington	L7-21	19.9	13	67	5.2	1	—	—	—	0.34
5	@Washington State	L24-28	11.3	30	106	3.5	1	—	—	—	0.04
6	@Stanford	W40-21	13.0	20	160	8.0	2	1	0	0	0.57
7	vsArizona	W42-10	3.6	15	68	4.5	1	1	6	0	0.49
8	vsUSC	W41-28	9.7	25	136	5.4	0	—	—	—	0.13
9	@UCLA	W41-10	-0.4	26	211	8.1	3	2	14	0	0.61
10	@Arizona State	L20-38	5.0	18	128	7.1	1	—	—	—	0.34

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

29.4%

Passing plays

3.7%

Rushing plays

50.3%

Standard downs

34.9%

Passing downs

16.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.34
Passing downs: 0.23
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.45 / 0.32

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2019 · 22 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Utah	3.0	0.380	—	66.1
2019	Utah	3.7	0.360	-0.02	85.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.