Nick Wilson is a Explosive Back for Arizona. Nick's 2014 season ranks in the 78th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 243 plays — a above-average rate for the RB. A four-star recruit in the class of 2014, Nick has lived up to his recruiting pedigree.
What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.52Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.10Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.41Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nick Wilson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
Recruiting Profile· Class of 2014
- Stars
- ★★★★★
- 247 composite
- 0.9079
- National rank
- #245
- High school
- Central East
- Hometown
- Fresno, CA
Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.
2014 Production
Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs RB peers
- Efficiency78
- Volume68
- Explosiveness56
- Consistency56
- Receiving21
Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.
- ▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (78th percentile).
- ▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.24 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 0.83 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Oregon (SP+ 25).
Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.18
- Passing downs
- 0.58
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.26 / 0.25
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.