Noah Short is a 2-year Slot Specialist WR for Army. Noah's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 147 plays — a developing rate for the WR.
What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.47Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.09Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.45Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Noah Short's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers
- Efficiency0
- Volume49
- Explosiveness45
- Consistency45
- Pass-Down100
The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs WR peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.19 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 0.53 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Air Force (SP+ -3).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.02
- Passing downs
- 0.52
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.53 / 0.07
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.