#18De'Michael Harris

WR·Southern Miss·20190.7 pts line value1st Round

De'Michael Harris is a Possession Receiver WR for Southern Miss. De'Michael's 2019 season ranks in the 40th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 149 plays — a developing rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So De'Michael Harris's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Rushing

541 Rush yards5 Rush TD113 Carries4.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

34 Receptions346 Rec yards3 Rec TD10.2 Yards/rec

Returns

11 Kick returns282 KR yards1 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs WR peers

Efficiency40
Volume53
Explosiveness21
Consistency0
Pass-Down89

Player type

Possession Receiver WR

Chain-mover who earns targets through reliability. High volume, short-to-intermediate routes, consistent floor every week.

High target shareChain moverReliable floor

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)40th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.16 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.17 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Tulane (SP+ 8).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2017	161	0.150	0.0	24.2
D.J. Foster	Arizona State	2014	174	0.200	1.0	34.8
Hyleck Foster	Marshall	2015	101	0.180	0.5	18.2
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2019	153	0.210	1.9	32.1
Davis Bryson	Kennesaw State	2024	97	0.200	0.0	19.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
2	@Mississippi State	L15-38	3.5	—	—	—	—	—	0.50
3	@Troy	W47-42	-4.4	4	18	4.5	0	12	-0.13
4	@Alabama	L7-49	32.4	3	50	16.7	1	37	0.11
5	vsUTEP	W31-13	-25.6	2	80	40.0	1	74	0.77
7	vsNorth Texas	W45-27	-6.1	5	79	15.8	1	59	0.40
8	@Louisiana Tech	L30-45	0.2	—	—	—	—	—	-0.55
9	@Rice	W20-6	-18.0	3	11	3.7	0	5	-0.26
11	vsUAB	W37-2	-1.4	1	-1	-1.0	0	0	-0.47
12	@UTSA	W36-17	-23.7	5	22	4.4	0	7	0.10
13	vsWestern Kentucky	L10-28	1.7	1	1	1.0	0	1	-0.38
14	@Florida Atlantic	L17-34	-0.6	6	37	6.2	0	20	-0.01
1	vsTulane	L13-30	7.5	4	49	12.3	0	28	1.17

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

18.7%

Passing plays

9.6%

Rushing plays

29.4%

Standard downs

22.1%

Passing downs

12.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.02
Passing downs: 0.26
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.63 / -0.12

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.