#5Shai Werts

WR·Georgia Southern·2020 2019 2018 20170.0 pts line value1st Round

Shai Werts is a 4-year Vertical Threat WR for Georgia Southern. Shai's 2017 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 332 plays — a developing rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Shai Werts's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

85/152 Comp/Att929 Pass yards7 Pass TD5 INT55.9% Comp %

Rushing

722 Rush yards3 Rush TD207 Carries3.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

1 Receptions30 Rec yards0 Rec TD30.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs WR peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Explosiveness100
Consistency0
Pass-Down74

Player type

Vertical Threat WR

Elite deep receiver who stretches the field. Wins downfield, commands safety attention, and creates the threat that opens underneath routes.

Downfield threatYAC upsideCreates space for teammates

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs WR peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used WRs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.18 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.45 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs South Alabama (SP+ -12).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
D.J. Foster	Arizona State	2014	174	0.200	1.0	34.8
Zach Abey	Navy	2017	275	0.370	2.9	101.8
De'Michael Harris	Southern Miss	2019	117	0.130	0.7	15.2
Hyleck Foster	Marshall	2015	101	0.180	0.5	18.2
Jerrod Heard	Texas	2015	116	0.290	1.6	33.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@Auburn	L7-41	24.7	—	—	—	—	—	-0.48
2	vsNew Hampshire	L12-22	—	—	—	—	—	—	-0.15
4	@Indiana	L17-52	10.2	—	—	—	—	—	0.15
6	vsArkansas State	L25-43	1.5	—	—	—	—	—	0.05
7	vsNew Mexico State	L27-35	-9.4	—	—	—	—	—	0.07
9	@Troy	L16-38	1.6	—	—	—	—	—	0.22
10	vsGeorgia State	L17-21	-14.0	—	—	—	—	—	0.34
11	@App State	L6-27	3.8	—	—	—	—	—	-0.15
12	vsSouth Alabama	W52-0	-12.0	—	—	—	—	—	0.45
13	@Louisiana	W34-24	-15.8	—	—	—	—	—	-0.21
14	@Coastal Carolina	L17-28	—	1	30	30.0	0	30	0.09

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

45.2%

Passing plays

87.0%

Rushing plays

31.7%

Standard downs

36.9%

Passing downs

61.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.02
Passing downs: 0.12
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.08 / 0.01

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2020 · 45 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Georgia Southern	0.0	0.150	—	24.2
2018	Georgia Southern	2.3	0.360	+0.21	51.8
2019	Georgia Southern	1.9	0.210	-0.15	32.1
2020	Georgia Southern	1.0	0.310	+0.10	39.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.