#8D.J. Foster

WR·Arizona State·2014 20131.0 pts line value1st Round

D.J. Foster is a 2-year Workhorse Receiver WR for Arizona State. D.J.'s 2014 season ranks in the 29th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 250 plays — a developing rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So D.J. Foster's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Rushing

1081 Rush yards9 Rush TD194 Carries5.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

62 Receptions688 Rec yards3 Rec TD11.1 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs WR peers

Efficiency29
Volume83
Explosiveness27
Consistency66
Pass-Down80

Player type

Workhorse Receiver WR

The primary target in the offense — used across all situations and down-types at an elite volume.

Top target shareAll-down utilityOffense runs through this player

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)29th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency66th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs WR peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used WRs by play share.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.13 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.73 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Washington State (SP+ -2).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2017	161	0.150	0.0	24.2
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2019	153	0.210	1.9	32.1
Zach Abey	Navy	2017	275	0.370	2.9	101.8
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2020	128	0.310	1.0	39.7
De'Michael Harris	Southern Miss	2019	117	0.130	0.7	15.2

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsWeber State	W45-14	—	4	26	6.5	0	16	0.61
2	@New Mexico	W58-23	-15.0	3	54	18.0	0	39	0.73
3	@Colorado	W38-24	-5.0	4	59	14.8	1	27	0.50
5	vsUCLA	L27-62	17.7	5	68	13.6	0	20	—
6	@USC	W38-34	17.1	5	73	14.6	1	29	-0.15
8	vsStanford	W26-10	21.4	7	92	13.1	0	27	0.12
9	@Washington	W24-10	7.8	4	52	13.0	0	31	0.01
10	vsUtah	W19-16	8.8	6	28	4.7	0	11	-0.11
11	vsNotre Dame	W55-31	10.8	1	10	10.0	0	10	0.32
12	@Oregon State	L27-35	3.2	8	65	8.1	1	17	0.09
13	vsWashington State	W52-31	-1.7	5	59	11.8	0	42	0.73
14	@Arizona	L35-42	7.6	7	60	8.6	0	16	-0.02
1	vsDuke	W36-31	7.0	3	42	14.0	0	28	0.37

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

29.2%

Passing plays

17.7%

Rushing plays

41.9%

Standard downs

31.5%

Passing downs

24.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.18
Passing downs: 0.36
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.50 / 0.11

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2014 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	Arizona State	0.0	0.020	—	1.7
2014	Arizona State	1.0	0.200	+0.18	34.8

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.