vs UConn · Wk 3Win prob 68%Model -7.4Schedule & Results
AUBAuburnL8-43✓Wk 3vsCONNUConn-7.468%Wk 4@
TULNTulane+0.848%Wk 6@
TROYTroy-4.662%Wk 7vs
ARSTArkansas State-14.683%Wk 8vs
ULLouisiana-8.670%Wk 9@
ULMUL Monroe-10.475%Wk 10vs
JMUJames Madison-2.054%Wk 11@
LTLouisiana Tech0.050%Wk 12vs
USASouth Alabama-12.178%Wk 13@
ODUOld Dominion+0.749%Team Leaders
Ethan HamptonPassing326 yds · 2 TD · 3 INT
Steven RobinsonRushing174 yds · 3 TD · 4.6 avg
Mario Sanders IIReceiving9 rec · 152 yds · 1 TD
Laquan RobinsonTackles17 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Southern Miss
All news →Southern Miss's passing game is Auburn's biggest problem
Ethan Hampton produced six of Southern Miss's eight explosive plays
Roster · 112 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ethan Hampton | QB | SR | 6'3" | 220 | Elburn, IL |
| 12 | John White | QB | SO | 6'0" | 193 | West, MS |
| 15 | Hugh Price | QB | FR | 6'6" | 204 | Nashville, TN |
| 16 | Maddox McCrory | QB | FR | 6'1" | 185 | Cabot, AR |
| 18 | Landry Lyddy | QB | SR | 6'0" | 208 | Stonewall, LA |
| 2 | Robert Briggs | RB | SR | 5'7" | 183 | Bellville, TX |
| 6 | Jamarice Wilder | RB | FR | 5'9" | 187 | Sarasota, FL |
| 14 | Steven Robinson | RB | JR | 5'9" | 208 | Baltimore, MD |
| 20 | Robert Henderson | RB | SO | 5'10" | 195 | Griffin, GA |
| 22 | Jaylen Foster | RB | JR | 5'11" | 190 | Greenwood, SC |
| 25 | Josiah Basten | RB | JR | 5'9" | 190 | Bonduel, WI |
| 26 | Brandon Hood | RB | SO | 5'10" | 200 | Conyers, GA |
| 27 | John Ford | RB | FR | 5'9" | 180 | Birmingham, AL |
| 0 | Eelijah Singleton | WR | JR | 5'10" | 190 | Tampa, FL |
| 1 | Mario Sanders | WR | SR | 5'10" | 191 | Minneapolis, MN |
| 3 | MJ Johnson | WR | JR | 5'10" | 180 | Enterprise, AL |
| 7 | Kaden Saunders | WR | JR | 5'10" | 175 | Columbus, OH |
| 8 | AJ Little | WR | JR | 5'11" | 200 | Macon, MS |
| 9 | Jaylen Himes | WR | SO | 5'9" | 185 | Statesville, NC |
| 11 | Davis Dalton | WR | SR | 6'3" | 207 | Madison, MS |
| 13 | Grant Page | WR | SR | 6'3" | 200 | Boulder, CO |
| 19 | Cace Reed | WR | SO | 5'10" | 160 | Hammond, LA |
| 23 | Trey Horne | WR | JR | 6'3" | 200 | Columbia, SC |
| 38 | Nehemiah Taylor | WR | SO | 5'11" | 190 | Hattiesburg, MS |
| 80 | King David Aboya | WR | FR | 6'3" | 195 | Milton, FL |
| 83 | Dillon Rowley | WR | SO | 5'10" | 174 | Columbia, MS |
| 86 | Israel Leamon | WR | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Greer, SC |
| 81 | Preston Kilgore | TE | JR | 6'4" | 240 | Terrell, TX |
| 82 | Connor Gooding | TE | SO | 6'4" | 230 | Gilbert, SC |
| 84 | Broderick Peters | TE | FR | 6'4" | 245 | Hammond, LA |
| 85 | Javery Mayberry | TE | SO | 6'3" | 245 | Chandler, AZ |
| 87 | Caston Brown | TE | SO | 6'2" | 228 | Oak Grove, MS |
| 88 | Jeremiah Beck Jr. | TE | JR | 6'2" | 237 | Fontana, CA |
| 89 | Drew Bilderback | TE | FR | 6'3" | 235 | Columbia, MS |
| 50 | Joe Rounds | OL | SR | 6'0" | 315 | Suffolk, VA |
| 53 | Toby Mealer | OL | FR | 6'5" | 335 | Eugene, OR |
| 54 | Dante Devine | OL | JR | 6'7" | 325 | Orlando, FL |
| 55 | Zerian Hudson | OL | SR | 6'3" | 334 | Brookhaven, MS |
| 56 | Greg Nunnery | OL | SR | 6'4" | 320 | Mccomb, MS |
| 56 | Brayden Warner | OL | JR | 6'3" | 311 | Brandon, MS |
| 61 | Kendrick Watkins | OL | SR | 6'2" | 310 | Edwards, MS |
| 62 | Aloali'i Maui | OL | SR | 6'1" | 310 | Pago Pago |
| 64 | Camden Myers | OL | SO | 6'3" | 300 | Irmo, SC |
| 68 | Grant Kitchens | OL | FR | 6'7" | 329 | Louisville, MS |
| 70 | Braden Cain | OL | JR | 6'4" | 310 | Houston, TX |
| 71 | Jahmir Davis | OL | SO | 6'5" | 301 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 72 | Will Burgess | OL | SO | 6'6" | 275 | Birmingham, AL |
| 73 | Hayden Breal | OL | FR | 6'0" | 281 | Mobile, AL |
| 74 | Luke Rogers | OL | JR | 6'3" | 305 | Brandon, MS |
| 75 | Casey Jean-Baptiste | OL | JR | 6'5" | 320 | West Palm Beach, FL |
| 76 | Larry Edwards | OL | JR | 6'5" | 290 | Belzoni, MS |
| 77 | Chase Malamala | OL | SO | 6'6" | 297 | Palm Beach Gardens, FL |
| 78 | Christian Young | OL | SR | 6'4" | 335 | Fredericksburg, VA |
| 79 | Liam Cassidy | OL | JR | 6'5" | 320 | Portland, OR |
| 5 | Nasim Cairo | DL | SR | 6'2" | 280 | Edwardsville, IL |
| 7 | Kameron Cyprien | DL | JR | 6'3" | 250 | Lafayette, LA |
| 11 | A'mari Wilson | DL | JR | 6'6" | 265 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 15 | Jeffery Rush Jr. | DL | SO | 6'1" | 265 | Pascagoula, MS |
| 16 | Jameer Lewis | DL | SR | 6'2" | 230 | Mccomb, MS |
| 17 | Ramon Pernas | DL | SO | 6'3" | 237 | Tomball, TX |
| 31 | Zachariah Keith | DL | JR | 6'6" | 280 | Atlanta, GA |
| 41 | Will Smith | DL | SO | 6'2" | 240 | Choctaw, OK |
| 43 | KJ Washington | DL | FR | 6'3" | 235 | D'Iberville, MS |
| 52 | Xavier McIver | DL | SR | 6'0" | 305 | Cheraw, SC |
| 57 | Jeramie Posey | DL | JR | 6'2" | 266 | Oak Grove, MS |
| 88 | Darrell Gross | DL | JR | 6'1" | 292 | Madison, MS |
| 90 | JR Stegall | DL | JR | 6'2" | 326 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 92 | David Griffin | DL | JR | 6'1" | 299 | New Orleans, LA |
| 93 | Travis Bendolph | DL | JR | 6'1" | 285 | Mobile, AL |
| 94 | Talik Parkman | DL | FR | 6'3" | 295 | Sumrall, MS |
| 95 | Josh Johnson | DL | JR | 6'0" | 320 | New Orleans, LA |
| 97 | Ari Slocum | DL | FR | 6'3" | 305 | Farmerville, LA |
| 98 | Kei'shaun Mashburn | DL | JR | 6'2" | 300 | Quincy, FL |
| 99 | Cam'ron Hoyte | DL | JR | 6'4" | 295 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 0 | Caleb Triplett | LB | FR | 6'0" | 219 | D'Iberville, MS |
| 2 | Tyler Lassiter | LB | SO | 6'3" | 230 | Raleigh, NC |
| 6 | Andrew Martin | LB | SR | 6'0" | 212 | Mcdonough, GA |
| 13 | Mathis Haygood | LB | JR | 6'4" | 230 | Fayetteville, GA |
| 33 | Avery Sledge | LB | SR | 6'2" | 220 | Hattiesburg, MS |
| 34 | Marrio Williams Jr. | LB | SO | 6'1" | 220 | Reno, NV |
| 35 | Wesley Edison | LB | SO | 6'3" | 230 | Lawrence, KS |
| 42 | Melvin Spriggs | LB | JR | 6'2" | 220 | Landstuhl |
| 49 | BJ Mitchell | LB | JR | 5'9" | 218 | Hattiesburg, MS |
| 51 | Ricky Harding | LB | JR | 6'1" | 220 | Bushnell, FL |
| 8 | Ishmael Ibraheem | CB | SR | 6'0" | 178 | Dallas, TX |
| 19 | Malakai Murphy | CB | SO | 6'1" | 195 | Starke, FL |
| 29 | Jeremiah Dillon | CB | SR | 6'2" | 193 | Tylertown, MS |
| 1 | Champ Lewis | DB | JR | 6'0" | 183 | New Orleans, LA |
| 3 | Jyaire Brown | DB | SR | 5'11" | 180 | New Orleans, LA |
| 12 | Laquan Robinson | DB | SR | 6'1" | 210 | Greenville, AL |
| 14 | Jordan Pride | DB | SO | 6'1" | 210 | Blountstown, FL |
| 16 | Jonah Martinez | DB | JR | 6'0" | 180 | Orange County, CA |
| 20 | Kolby Peavy | DB | JR | 5'11" | 193 | Monroeville, AL |
| 21 | Sammy Anderson Jr. | DB | SR | 6'1" | 190 | Dayton, OH |
| 22 | Kobi Albert | DB | JR | 5'11" | 175 | Birmingham, AL |
| 23 | Hiroshi Carr | DB | JR | 6'1" | 186 | Stafford, VA |
| 24 | Michael Robinson III | DB | JR | 6'0" | 190 | Columbus, OH |
| 25 | Landon Sylvie | DB | JR | 5'10" | 183 | Shreveport, LA |
| 26 | Baron Taylor | DB | JR | 6'0" | 190 | Sacramento, CA |
| 28 | Kelby Hampton | DB | SO | 6'1" | 189 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 30 | Trevor Winton | DB | FR | 5'11" | 170 | Olive Branch, MS |
| 39 | Johnnie Evans | DB | JR | 5'11" | 195 | Hattiesburg, MS |
| 47 | Cannon McClain | DB | JR | 6'2" | 184 | Hattiesburg, MS |
| 18 | MaLik Caswell | S | SO | 6'0" | 185 | Midway, GA |
| 27 | Chauncey Davis Jr. | S | FR | 6'1" | 195 | Suwanee, GA |
| 37 | Aidan Horne | S | FR | 6'3" | 187 | Columbia, SC |
| 40 | Creighton Wilbanks | PK | SO | 5'10" | 176 | Mandeville, LA |
| 96 | Reed Harradine | PK | JR | 6'4" | 225 | Birmingham, AL |
| 36 | Dusty Zimmer | P | SO | 6'3" | 230 | Gold Coast, QLD |
| 30 | Andrew Tate | LS | JR | 5'11" | 203 | Madden, MS |
| 46 | Luke Beard | LS | JR | 6'1" | 218 | Ackerman, MS |
| 48 | Colin Kapilovic | LS | SO | 6'0" | 212 | Tuscaloosa, AL |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Southern Miss is in year 1 under Blake Anderson, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 9th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −25.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Southern Miss has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#9projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.75#20
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.12 / 0.56
- Power / stuff (off)
- 72.7% / 10.0%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 13.7%#110
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 8.9% / 4.8%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.05#104 | 0.44#29 | 0.40#91 |
| Defense | -0.22#27 | 0.11#66 | 0.53#96 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.1326th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.0850th
- Offense success rate47%61st
- Defense success rate allowed37%55th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs51%60th
- Offense success — passing downs39%76th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs33%87th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs41%7th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness0.961st
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.415th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9020th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.831st
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.477th
- Defense line yards allowed3.024th
- Offense highlight yards0.327th
- Defense highlight yards allowed1.130th
- Offense power success0.7653rd
- Defense power success allowed0.3686th
- Offense stuff rate0.0896th
- Defense stuff rate0.2254th
Third down
- Third down conversion42%47th
- Third down distance faced5.492nd
- Third down conversion allowed46%20th
- Third down distance forced7.453rd
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.1572nd
- Net success rate — second half0.0855th
Drives
- Points per drive-0.182nd
- Points per drive allowed3.419th
- Average starting field position202nd
- Opponent starting field position2760th
- Available yards gained21%6th
- Available yards allowed77%6th
- Scoring opportunities per drive55%7th
- Scoring opportunities allowed100%12th
- Points per scoring opportunity0.838th
- Points allowed per opportunity3.429th
- Three-and-out rate36%26th
- Three-and-outs forced0%7th
Roster
- Returning usage92%96th
- Returning EPA28996th
- Team talent composite60332nd
- Recruiting class rank10822nd
- Recruiting class points17522nd
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Rush efficiency edge: 0.153 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 11 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 65.8%
- Expected, given the spots
- 52.0%
- Over expected
- +13.8
- Fourth down vs peers
- +13
- Fourth down vs the model
- +0
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Southern Miss is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Southern Miss in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 50% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 7-6 | 5-3 | 54% | 6.9 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 1-11 | 0-8 | 8% | 1.5 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 4.1 | -1.1 |
| 2022 | 7-6 | 4-4 | 54% | 6.9 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 4.3 | -1.3 |
| 2020 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 30% | 3.5 | -0.5 |
| 2019 | 7-6 | 5-3 | 54% | 6.7 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 6-5 | 5-3 | 55% | 5.6 | +0.4 |
| 2017 | 8-5 | 6-2 | 62% | 6.9 | +1.1 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 3.9-8.1. Wins the Sun Belt in 0.5%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
down 0.0 points since preseason.
- The Sun Belt takes 0.20 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.0% of seasons, having won their league in 100% of those.
Southern Miss’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk4at Tulane0.1
- wk10vs James Madison0.1
- wk11at Louisiana Tech0.1
- wk13at Old Dominion0.1
- wk6at Troy0.1
- wk8vs Louisiana0.1
Who to root for
Games Southern Miss is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk13UAB over North Texas0.1
- wk5Temple over South Florida0.1
- wk10Akron over Ohio0.0
- wk6Kentucky over LSU0.0
- wk7Rutgers over Maryland0.0
- wk9Rutgers over Michigan0.0
Sun Belt
West division · 0-0 in league play, projected 2.4-5.612 of 14 by title oddsThe Sun Belt keeps divisions (East and West) and sends the winner of each — so Southern Miss can finish with the league’s second-best record and still stay home. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk11Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech2.5
- wk10James Madison at Southern Miss2.0
- wk6Southern Miss at Troy1.8
- wk8Louisiana at Southern Miss1.8
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Sun Belt race →
If not the playoff, then
Southern Miss is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- 68 Ventures Bowl4.0%
- Salute to Veterans Bowl3.7%
- New Orleans Bowl3.2%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl2.4%
- Boca Raton Bowl1.5%
- Xbox Bowl1.4%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 7 have sent Southern Miss a player since 2010 — 20 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Southern Miss's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.