Troy vs. Georgia State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TROYTeam statsGAST
- Q4 0:06TROYKimani Vidal 6 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)28–7
- Q3 2:42TROYKimani Vidal 14 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Gunnar Watson Pass to Deyunkrea Lewis for Two-Point Conversion)21–7
- Q3 11:56TROYDamien Taylor 45 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)13–7
- Q2 7:05GASTMarcus Carroll 1 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)6–7
- Q2 13:12TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 38 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 7:07TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 22 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassGunnar Watson 23/30, 256 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKimani Vidal 23 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJabre Barber 7 REC, 121 YDS
- PassDarren Grainger 19/29, 193 YDS, 2 INT
- RushMarcus Carroll 19 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRobert Lewis 6 REC, 114 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTROY up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,009 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 11:56TROY +26%
Damien Taylor run for 45 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
- Q3 2:42TROY +22%
Kimani Vidal 14 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Gunnar Watson Pass to Deyunkrea Lewis for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q2 7:05GAST +22%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
- Q2 13:12TROY +9%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 38 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 7:07TROY +9%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 22 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 6:07TROY +8%
Kimani Vidal run for 14 yds to the GAST 44 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Troy vs. Georgia State?
Troy 28, Georgia State 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked GAST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TROY | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 410 | Total yards | 298 |
| 256 | Passing yards | 193 |
| 154 | Rushing yards | 105 |
| 21 | First downs | 16 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 23/30 | Comp/Att | 19/29 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-35 | Penalties | 5-36 |
| 34:48 | Possession | 25:12 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:11 TROY punt on 4th & 2 at TROY 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.60 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:06TROYKimani Vidal 6 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)28–7
- Q3 2:42TROYKimani Vidal 14 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Gunnar Watson Pass to Deyunkrea Lewis for Two-Point Conversion)21–7
- Q3 11:56TROYDamien Taylor 45 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)13–7
- Q2 7:05GASTMarcus Carroll 1 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)6–7
- Q2 13:12TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 38 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 7:07TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 22 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GAST Elo 1546, TROY Elo 1504 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GAST -4.1 (62% to win) — 3.1 points clear of GAST's market line of -1. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#45 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #117 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →Troy leads 7–4 · Troy has won 2 straight · 18% have been one-possession games
| TROY | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.8 (#31) | CORE overall | -2.0 (#72) |
| -0 / -11 | offense / defense | +0 / +2 |
| 2.40 | points / drive | 2.10 |
| 1.38 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →