#18Gunnar Watson

QB·Troy·2023

Gunnar Watson is a Clutch Passer for Troy. Gunnar's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 479 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Gunnar Watson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

267/438 Comp/Att3557 Pass yards27 Pass TD6 INT61.0% Comp %

Rushing

-101 Rush yards1 Rush TD51 Carries-2.0 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts11 Punt yards11.0 Yards/punt11 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat40
Consistency87
Clutch65

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency87th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.64 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Georgia State (SP+ -7).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsStephen F. Austin	W48-30	—	14/22	198	4	1	52.1	-1	0	0.58
2	@Kansas State	L13-42	16.2	17/32	167	1	1	55.6	-13	0	0.18
3	vsJames Madison	L14-16	11.8	25/46	332	2	1	29.1	-44	0	0.20
4	vsWestern Kentucky	W27-24	-2.0	22/35	349	1	0	61.8	-20	0	0.46
5	@Georgia State	W28-7	-6.8	23/30	256	1	1	79.1	9	0	0.64
6	vsArkansas State	W37-3	-6.3	12/21	236	1	0	75.2	16	0	0.40
7	@Army	W19-0	-4.0	10/21	227	1	0	60.3	—	—	0.10
9	@Texas State	W31-13	-1.6	26/40	392	3	0	76.4	-28	1	0.31
10	vsSouth Alabama	W28-10	5.1	19/27	271	3	0	67.9	-1	0	0.46
11	@UL Monroe	W45-14	-21.6	24/39	219	4	0	76.6	-2	0	0.27
12	vsLouisiana	W31-24	0.4	17/31	199	3	0	74.1	7	0	0.35
13	@Southern Miss	W35-17	-14.4	21/34	289	2	1	80.0	-5	0	0.22
14	vsApp State	W49-23	3.8	16/24	192	1	0	62.9	-8	0	0.29
20	vsDuke	L10-17	9.4	21/36	230	0	1	20.9	-11	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

51.5%

Passing plays

95.8%

Rushing plays

5.9%

Standard downs

42.5%

Passing downs

69.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.23
Passing downs: 0.35
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.29 / 0.10

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).