#5Davis Brin

QB·Georgia Southern·2023

Davis Brin is a Clutch Passer for Georgia Southern. Davis's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 573 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Davis Brin's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

362/552 Comp/Att3781 Pass yards24 Pass TD19 INT65.6% Comp %

Rushing

-60 Rush yards1 Rush TD74 Carries-0.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat0
Consistency86
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency86th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.08 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.44 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs UAB (SP+ -15).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsThe Citadel	W34-0	—	27/36	244	2	1	43.3	-1	0	0.19
2	vsUAB	W49-35	-14.7	38/47	318	2	1	76.1	18	1	0.44
3	@Wisconsin	L14-35	9.4	33/52	383	1	5	40.6	-22	0	0.23
4	@Ball State	W40-3	-14.9	34/46	344	4	0	83.8	8	0	0.35
5	vsCoastal Carolina	W38-28	-1.2	34/56	322	3	0	50.3	2	0	0.31
7	@James Madison	L13-41	11.8	31/52	271	0	2	58.0	-18	0	0.14
8	vsUL Monroe	W38-28	-21.6	20/36	240	2	2	30.9	-32	0	0.20
9	vsGeorgia State	W44-27	-6.8	22/35	334	3	1	44.8	-13	0	0.33
10	@Texas State	L24-45	-1.6	18/27	195	1	1	4.2	3	0	0.00
11	@Marshall	L33-38	-9.0	29/54	307	3	0	42.1	6	0	0.22
12	vsOld Dominion	L17-20	-10.1	20/35	235	1	0	43.3	11	0	0.23
13	@App State	L27-55	3.8	24/34	238	0	3	40.8	1	0	0.21
20	vsOhio	L21-41	-1.6	32/42	350	2	3	18.8	-23	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

64.4%

Passing plays

96.2%

Rushing plays

13.3%

Standard downs

58.8%

Passing downs

77.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.12
Passing downs: 0.43
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.26 / -0.13

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).