Tennessee vs. South Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TENNTeam statsSC
- Q4 1:14TENNCedric Tillman 21 Yd pass from Joe Milton III (Chase McGrath Kick)38–63
- Q4 2:06SCJalen Brooks 20 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Mitch Jeter Kick)31–63
- Q4 9:26SCDakereon Joyner 3 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)31–56
- Q4 11:41SCJaheim Bell 2 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Mitch Jeter Kick)31–49
- Q3 5:03SCAntwane Wells Jr. 3 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)31–42
- Q3 9:53TENNPrinceton Fant 41 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Chase McGrath Kick)31–35
- Q2 0:12TENNBru McCoy 7 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Chase McGrath Kick)24–35
- Q2 2:04SCJosh Vann 18 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Mitch Jeter Kick)17–35
- Q2 4:58TENNChase McGrath 27 Yd Field Goal 17–28
- Q2 9:06SCDakereon Joyner 1 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)14–28
- Q2 12:24TENNCedric Tillman 3 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Chase McGrath Kick)14–21
- Q1 1:15SCJuju McDowell 11 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Mitch Jeter Kick)7–21
- Q1 6:25SCJosh Vann 60 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Mitch Jeter Kick)7–14
- Q1 9:30TENNJabari Small 31 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:34SCJaheim Bell 19 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Mitch Jeter Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassHendon Hooker 25/42, 247 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJabari Small 11 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSquirrel White 5 REC, 96 YDS
- PassSpencer Rattler 30/37, 438 YDS, 6 TD
- RushJaheim Bell 17 CAR, 82 YDS
- RecAntwane Wells Jr. 11 REC, 177 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSC up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 5:03SC +30%
Antwane Wells Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Mitch Jeter KICK)
- Q3 9:53TENN +26%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Princeton Fant for 41 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
- Q2 0:12TENN +23%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 7 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
- Q2 2:04SC +22%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Josh Vann for 18 yds for a TD, (Mitch Jeter KICK)
- Q2 9:06SC +22%
Dakereon Joyner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mitch Jeter KICK)
- Q4 11:53SC +21%
Rattler, Spencer pass incomplete to Bell, Jaheim, PENALTY TENNESSEE pass interference 1 yards to the TENNESSEE2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOCAROLINA
FAQ
What was the final score of Tennessee vs. South Carolina?
Tennessee 38, South Carolina 63.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TENN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TENN | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| 507 | Total yards | 606 |
| 355 | Passing yards | 453 |
| 152 | Rushing yards | 153 |
| 31 | First downs | 35 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 8-11 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 29/50 | Comp/Att | 31/38 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 11.9 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 9-75 |
| 21:02 | Possession | 38:58 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:00 SC go for it on 4th & 6 at TENN 32. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.24 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:14TENNCedric Tillman 21 Yd pass from Joe Milton III (Chase McGrath Kick)38–63
- Q4 2:06SCJalen Brooks 20 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Mitch Jeter Kick)31–63
- Q4 9:26SCDakereon Joyner 3 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)31–56
- Q4 11:41SCJaheim Bell 2 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Mitch Jeter Kick)31–49
- Q3 5:03SCAntwane Wells Jr. 3 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)31–42
- Q3 9:53TENNPrinceton Fant 41 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Chase McGrath Kick)31–35
- Q2 0:12TENNBru McCoy 7 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Chase McGrath Kick)24–35
- Q2 2:04SCJosh Vann 18 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Mitch Jeter Kick)17–35
- Q2 4:58TENNChase McGrath 27 Yd Field Goal 17–28
- Q2 9:06SCDakereon Joyner 1 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)14–28
- Q2 12:24TENNCedric Tillman 3 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Chase McGrath Kick)14–21
- Q1 1:15SCJuju McDowell 11 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Mitch Jeter Kick)7–21
- Q1 6:25SCJosh Vann 60 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Mitch Jeter Kick)7–14
- Q1 9:30TENNJabari Small 31 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:34SCJaheim Bell 19 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Mitch Jeter Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SC Elo 1460, TENN Elo 2018 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SC +19.9 (11% to win) — 2.6 points clear of SC's market line of +22.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#3 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #5 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds · #1 of 62 in 2022 by biggest poll gap.
The 2022 upset archive →Tennessee leads 29–11–2 · 45% have been one-possession games
| TENN | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| +24.1 (#6) | CORE overall | +6.1 (#42) |
| +20 / -4 | offense / defense | +4 / -2 |
| 3.63 | points / drive | 2.27 |
| 1.85 | allowed / drive | 2.27 |
| 16% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →