Eastern Kentucky vs. Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Eastern Kentucky0-1
Kentucky1-0
▸Final
Kroger Field
EASTTeam statsUK
311Total yards414
219Pass299
92Rush115
15First downs20
6-123rd down5-11
2Turnovers1
27:53Possession32:07
- Q4 8:08UKRay Davis 24 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Alex Raynor Kick)17–28
- Q4 12:04EASTBraedon Sloan 9 Yd pass from Parker McKinney (Patrick Nations Kick)17–21
- Q3 1:47UKBarion Brown 13 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Alex Raynor Kick)10–21
- Q3 5:47UKTayvion Robinson 6 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Alex Raynor Kick)10–14
- Q3 9:41EASTPatrick Nations 21 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 0:42UKTayvion Robinson 24 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Alex Raynor Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:46EASTParker McKinney 14 Yd Run (Patrick Nations Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Market line
UK −35
Against the number
EAST covered
line UK −35
What the numbers say
- UK played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and EAST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 5.8
Kickoff136 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
UK (top)EAST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UK 100%
Closing line
UK −35
Closing total
62.5
Model line
—
Actual result
EAST 17 – 28 UK
Eastern Kentucky
- PassParker McKinney 19/29, 219 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushBraedon Sloan 7 CAR, 48 YDS
- RecBryant Johnson 2 REC, 53 YDS
Kentucky
- PassDevin Leary 24/38, 299 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushRay Davis 12 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecTayvion Robinson 6 REC, 136 YDS, 2 TD
31sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
116
Points / snap
0.39
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUK up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
UK went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Eastern Kentucky vs. Kentucky?
Eastern Kentucky 17, Kentucky 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UK) was correct.
EAST
UK
41%
Success rate
42%
0.15
EPA / pass
0.32
-0.06
EPA / rush
0.15
39%
Early-down success
42%
45%
Pass success
42%
36%
Rush success
41%
7%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
17%
16%
Stuffed rush rate
14%
55%
Pass rate
63%
5.8
Avg 3rd-down distance
7.8
EAST
5.8 yards to go on 3rd down
56 scrimmage snaps
UK
7.8 yards to go on 3rd down
60 scrimmage snaps
| EAST | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 311 | Total yards | 414 |
| 219 | Passing yards | 299 |
| 92 | Rushing yards | 115 |
| 15 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-12 | 3rd down | 5-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 19/29 | Comp/Att | 24/38 |
| 7.6 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-37 | Penalties | 10-70 |
| 27:53 | Possession | 32:07 |
EAST
3/5 with the model
−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob
UK
4/5 with the model
−0.5 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q1 4:30 UK go for it on 4th & 9 at EAST 33. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.54 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishEAST 3/11 scoring drives← own end zone →UK 4/11 scoring drives
UKPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 29Q1
EASTTD6 pl, 30 yds· opp 30Q1
UKDOWNS11 pl, 25 yds· own 30Q1
EASTPUNT4 pl, 15 yds· own 45Q1
UKPUNT5 pl, 25 yds· own 7Q1
EASTFUM2 pl, 11 yds· own 13Q2
UKINT4 pl, -3 yds· opp 24Q2
EASTINT3 pl, 24 yds· own 39Q2
UKPUNT7 pl, 33 yds· own 4Q2
EASTMISS7 pl, 56 yds· own 13Q2
UKPUNT4 pl, 16 yds· own 31Q2
EASTPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 3Q2
UKTD1 pl, 24 yds· opp 24Q2
EASTEND1 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q2
EASTFG10 pl, 71 yds· own 25Q3
UKTD9 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q3
EASTPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q3
UKTD4 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q3
EASTTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
UKTD6 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q4
EASTPUNT4 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q4
UKEND7 pl, 48 yds· own 36Q4
- Q4 8:08UKRay Davis 24 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Alex Raynor Kick)17–28
- Q4 12:04EASTBraedon Sloan 9 Yd pass from Parker McKinney (Patrick Nations Kick)17–21
- Q3 1:47UKBarion Brown 13 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Alex Raynor Kick)10–21
- Q3 5:47UKTayvion Robinson 6 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Alex Raynor Kick)10–14
- Q3 9:41EASTPatrick Nations 21 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 0:42UKTayvion Robinson 24 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Alex Raynor Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:46EASTParker McKinney 14 Yd Run (Patrick Nations Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →