Stephen F. Austin vs. Troy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Stephen F. Austin
Troy
▸Final
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
STEPTeam statsTROY
240Total yards540
136Pass198
104Rush342
17First downs24
4-133rd down7-12
1Turnovers4
27:46Possession32:14
- Q4 2:52STEPAnthony Williams 18 Yd Run (Chris Campos Kick)30–48
- Q4 4:45TROYJarris Williams 2 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)23–48
- Q4 13:59STEPChris Campos 49 Yd Field Goal 23–41
- Q3 2:13TROYDevonte Ross 13 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)20–41
- Q3 7:37TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 36 Yd Field Goal 20–34
- Q2 0:12TROYEthan Conner 19 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)20–31
- Q2 0:36STEPChris Campos 48 Yd Field Goal 20–24
- Q2 7:38STEPAmad Murray 37 Yd Fumble Return (Chris Campos Kick)17–24
- Q2 8:47STEPJerrell Wimbley 2 Yd Run (Chris Campos Kick)10–24
- Q2 13:34TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 29 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q1 6:05TROYJabre Barber 16 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)3–21
- Q1 6:43STEPChris Campos 36 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 12:05TROYReddy Steward 45 Yd Interception Return (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:28TROYEthan Conner 10 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
TROY −26
Against the number
STEP covered
line TROY −26
What the numbers say
- STEP played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TROY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 5.2
Kickoff137 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
TROY (top)STEP (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TROY 100%
Closing line
TROY −26
Closing total
48.0
Model line
—
Actual result
STEP 30 – 48 TROY
Stephen F. Austin
- PassBrian Maurer 18/31, 136 YDS, 1 INT
- RushAnthony Williams Jr. 9 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLawton Rikel 3 REC, 40 YDS
Troy
- PassGunnar Watson 14/22, 198 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushKimani Vidal 25 CAR, 248 YDS
- RecKimani Vidal 2 REC, 54 YDS
28.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
121
Points / snap
0.64
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTROY up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 669 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
TROY went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Stephen F. Austin vs. Troy?
Stephen F. Austin 30, Troy 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TROY) was correct.
STEP
TROY
37%
Success rate
57%
-0.24
EPA / pass
0.54
-0.05
EPA / rush
0.41
40%
Early-down success
57%
39%
Pass success
50%
33%
Rush success
62%
12%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
16%
19%
Stuffed rush rate
10%
55%
Pass rate
36%
7.8
Avg 3rd-down distance
5.2
STEP
7.8 yards to go on 3rd down
60 scrimmage snaps
TROY
5.2 yards to go on 3rd down
61 scrimmage snaps
| STEP | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 240 | Total yards | 540 |
| 136 | Passing yards | 198 |
| 104 | Rushing yards | 342 |
| 17 | First downs | 24 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 18/31 | Comp/Att | 14/22 |
| 4.4 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 8.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 3-35 | Penalties | 5-43 |
| 27:46 | Possession | 32:14 |
STEP
5/8 with the model
−0.6 pts · −0.0% win prob
TROY
2/3 with the model
nothing given up
Costliest call
Q1 0:42 STEP punt on 4th & 2 at STEP 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishSTEP 6/13 scoring drives← own end zone →TROY 8/12 scoring drives
TROYTD5 pl, 31 yds· opp 31Q1
STEPTD1 pl, 0 yds· own 33Q1
STEPFG12 pl, 49 yds· own 25Q1
TROYTD2 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
STEPDOWNS5 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q1
TROYPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· opp 47Q1
STEPPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 20Q1
TROYFG5 pl, 59 yds· own 29Q1
STEPTD9 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2
TROYTD4 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q2
TROYFUM10 pl, 46 yds· own 19Q2
STEPFG8 pl, 34 yds· own 35Q2
TROYTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
STEPEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 22Q2
STEPPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q3
TROYFG9 pl, 69 yds· own 13Q3
STEPPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3
TROYTD7 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q3
STEPPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 27Q3
STEPFG4 pl, -4 yds· opp 28Q4
TROYINT6 pl, 25 yds· own 19Q4
STEPDOWNS4 pl, 1 yds· opp 47Q4
TROYTD8 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q4
STEPTD3 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q4
TROYEND4 pl, 45 yds· own 25Q4
- Q4 2:52STEPAnthony Williams 18 Yd Run (Chris Campos Kick)30–48
- Q4 4:45TROYJarris Williams 2 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)23–48
- Q4 13:59STEPChris Campos 49 Yd Field Goal 23–41
- Q3 2:13TROYDevonte Ross 13 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)20–41
- Q3 7:37TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 36 Yd Field Goal 20–34
- Q2 0:12TROYEthan Conner 19 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)20–31
- Q2 0:36STEPChris Campos 48 Yd Field Goal 20–24
- Q2 7:38STEPAmad Murray 37 Yd Fumble Return (Chris Campos Kick)17–24
- Q2 8:47STEPJerrell Wimbley 2 Yd Run (Chris Campos Kick)10–24
- Q2 13:34TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 29 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q1 6:05TROYJabre Barber 16 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)3–21
- Q1 6:43STEPChris Campos 36 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 12:05TROYReddy Steward 45 Yd Interception Return (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:28TROYEthan Conner 10 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →