Lafayette vs. Duke: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Lafayette

07

Duke1-0

▸0042

Final

Wallace Wade Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
LAFA	7	0	0	0	7
DUKE	7	14	14	7	42

LAFATeam statsDUKE

213Total yards515

87Pass254

126Rush261

14First downs28

4-113rd down5-8

2Turnovers1

27:19Possession32:41

Scoring plays

• Q4 13:45DUKEJordan Moore 5 Yd pass from Henry Belin IV (Todd Pelino Kick)7–42
• Q3 1:50DUKEHenry Belin IV 1 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–35
• Q3 7:52DUKEJaquez Moore 39 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–28
• Q2 1:17DUKEJordan Waters 16 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–21
• Q2 12:45DUKEJordan Waters 5 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–14
• Q1 4:11LAFAChris Carasia 12 Yd pass from Dean DeNobile (Jack Simonetta Kick)7–7
• Q1 11:31DUKEJalon Calhoun 16 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Todd Pelino Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

DUKE −41.5

Against the number

LAFA covered

line DUKE −41.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

DUKE 100%50%LAFA 100%

Kickoff129 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

DUKE (top)LAFA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: DUKE 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

DUKE −41.5

Closing total

48.5

Model line

—

Actual result

LAFA 7 – 42 DUKE

Leaders

Lafayette

• PassDean DeNobile 9/17, 87 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
• RushJamar Curtis 10 CAR, 40 YDS
• RecElijah Steward 4 REC, 37 YDS

Duke

• PassRiley Leonard 12/12, 136 YDS, 1 TD
• RushJordan Waters 11 CAR, 112 YDS, 2 TD
• RecJordan Moore 4 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

30.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

117

Points / snap

0.42

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

DUKE up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 464 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

DUKE went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WVillanova vs Lehigh38-10WOhio State vs Youngstown State35-7WCampbell vs The Citadel56-7WGeorgia State vs UConn35-14WMemphis vs Arkansas State37-3

Fourth downs

9 calls

LAFA gave up 0.9 points to the model on fourth down.LAFA 4/6 · DUKE 2/2 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Lafayette vs. Duke?

Lafayette 7, Duke 42.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (DUKE) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

LAFA

DUKE

31%

Success rate

61%

0.02

EPA / pass

0.94

-0.08

EPA / rush

0.24

29%

Early-down success

59%

35%

Pass success

78%

29%

Rush success

51%

6%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

20%

19%

Stuffed rush rate

12%

39%

Pass rate

35%

8.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.2

LAFA

8.1 yards to go on 3rd down

51 scrimmage snaps

DUKE

6.2 yards to go on 3rd down

66 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

LAFA		DUKE
213	Total yards	515
87	Passing yards	254
126	Rushing yards	261
14	First downs	28
4-11	3rd down	5-8
1-2	4th down	2-3
9/18	Comp/Att	20/21
4.8	Yards per pass	12.1
3.8	Yards per rush	5.8
2	Turnovers	1
6-74	Penalties	4-25
27:19	Possession	32:41

Fourth downs

9 calls

LAFA

4/6 with the model

−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

DUKE

2/2 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q1 2:25 LAFA punt on 4th & 3 at DUKE 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.65 points.

Every call, priced (9)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

LAFA 1/9 scoring drives← own end zone →DUKE 6/9 scoring drives

DUKETD8 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q1

LAFATD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

DUKEFUM1 pl, 19 yds· own 35Q1

LAFAPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 46Q1

DUKETD9 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1

LAFADOWNS10 pl, 51 yds· own 25Q2

DUKETD9 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q2

LAFAINT6 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q2

DUKEMISS6 pl, 64 yds· own 25Q2

LAFAPUNT6 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q3

DUKETD8 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q3

LAFAPUNT5 pl, 14 yds· own 14Q3

DUKETD4 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q3

LAFAINT2 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q3

DUKETD5 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q3

LAFAPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q4

DUKEDOWNS17 pl, 55 yds· own 33Q4

LAFAEND3 pl, 19 yds· own 12Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 13:45DUKEJordan Moore 5 Yd pass from Henry Belin IV (Todd Pelino Kick)7–42
• Q3 1:50DUKEHenry Belin IV 1 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–35
• Q3 7:52DUKEJaquez Moore 39 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–28
• Q2 1:17DUKEJordan Waters 16 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–21
• Q2 12:45DUKEJordan Waters 5 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–14
• Q1 4:11LAFAChris Carasia 12 Yd pass from Dean DeNobile (Jack Simonetta Kick)7–7
• Q1 11:31DUKEJalon Calhoun 16 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Todd Pelino Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →