Villanova vs. Lehigh: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Villanova
▸
Lehigh
Final
Goodman Stadium
VILLTeam statsLEHI
412Total yards284
128Pass206
284Rush78
18First downs13
1-103rd down2-14
1Turnovers3
31:51Possession28:09
- Q4 8:02LEHIGaige Garcia 7 Yd pass from Brayten Silbor (Nick Garrido Kick)38–10
- Q3 4:13VILLDeeWil Barlee 1 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)38–3
- Q2 1:49VILLJalen Jackson 46 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)31–3
- Q2 3:45VILLRayjuon Pringle 7 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)24–3
- Q2 5:26VILLMatthew Mercurio 37 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 9:21LEHINick Garrido 38 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q1 1:53VILLRayjuon Pringle 28 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)14–0
- Q1 3:58VILLJalen Jackson 1 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Market line
VILL −19
Against the number
VILL covered
line VILL −19
What the numbers say
- LEHI played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and VILL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.6 vs 3rd & 7.1
- LEHI lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 28% success rate
Kickoff107 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
LEHI (top)VILL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: LEHI 0%
Closing line
VILL −19
Closing total
50.5
Model line
—
Actual result
VILL 38 – 10 LEHI
Villanova
- PassConnor Watkins 13/23, 119 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJalen Jackson 8 CAR, 144 YDS, 2 TD
- RecRayjuon Pringle 3 REC, 40 YDS, 2 TD
Lehigh
- PassBrayten Silbor 23/38, 206 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJack DiPietro 6 CAR, 23 YDS
- RecNick Williams 4 REC, 38 YDS
31.4sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
86
Points / snap
0.56
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsVILL up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 464 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
VILL went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Villanova vs. Lehigh?
Villanova 38, Lehigh 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LEHI, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
VILL
LEHI
41%
Success rate
28%
0.05
EPA / pass
-0.24
0.78
EPA / rush
-0.09
47%
Early-down success
30%
26%
Pass success
30%
55%
Rush success
21%
13%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
13%
10%
Stuffed rush rate
29%
49%
Pass rate
70%
7.1
Avg 3rd-down distance
9.6
VILL
7.1 yards to go on 3rd down
39 scrimmage snaps
LEHI
9.6 yards to go on 3rd down
47 scrimmage snaps
| VILL | LEHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 412 | Total yards | 284 |
| 128 | Passing yards | 206 |
| 284 | Rushing yards | 78 |
| 18 | First downs | 13 |
| 1-10 | 3rd down | 2-14 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 15/26 | Comp/Att | 23/39 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 5.3 |
| 9.2 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 5-45 |
| 31:51 | Possession | 28:09 |
VILL
7/7 with the model
nothing given up
LEHI
9/9 with the model
nothing given up
No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishVILL 6/13 scoring drives← own end zone →LEHI 2/14 scoring drives
LEHIPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 45Q1
VILLPUNT4 pl, 12 yds· own 20Q1
LEHIPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 38Q1
VILLTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
LEHIFUM3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1
VILLTD2 pl, 28 yds· opp 28Q1
LEHIPUNT4 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q1
VILLPUNT5 pl, 16 yds· own 20Q1
VILLTD2 pl, 17 yds· opp 17Q2
LEHIFG9 pl, 27 yds· opp 48Q2
VILLFG6 pl, 58 yds· own 22Q2
LEHIINT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q2
LEHIINT3 pl, 18 yds· own 27Q2
VILLTD2 pl, 51 yds· own 49Q2
LEHIPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q2
LEHIPUNT6 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q3
VILLINT4 pl, 29 yds· own 20Q3
LEHIPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 44Q3
VILLTD9 pl, 97 yds· own 3Q3
LEHIPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q3
VILLPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 18Q3
LEHIDOWNS7 pl, 36 yds· own 45Q3
VILLPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 19Q4
LEHITD7 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q4
VILLPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q4
LEHIPUNT4 pl, 29 yds· own 22Q4
VILLPUNT3 pl, 23 yds· own 12Q4
- Q4 8:02LEHIGaige Garcia 7 Yd pass from Brayten Silbor (Nick Garrido Kick)38–10
- Q3 4:13VILLDeeWil Barlee 1 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)38–3
- Q2 1:49VILLJalen Jackson 46 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)31–3
- Q2 3:45VILLRayjuon Pringle 7 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)24–3
- Q2 5:26VILLMatthew Mercurio 37 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 9:21LEHINick Garrido 38 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q1 1:53VILLRayjuon Pringle 28 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)14–0
- Q1 3:58VILLJalen Jackson 1 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →