Michigan vs. Nebraska: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MICHTeam statsNEB
- Q4 4:17NEBJoshua Fleeks 74 Yd Run (Tristan Alvano Kick)45–7
- Q4 4:37MICHPeyton O'Leary 8 Yd pass from Jayden Denegal (James Turner Kick)45–0
- Q4 14:17MICHJames Turner 30 Yd Field Goal 38–0
- Q3 5:58MICHBlake Corum 1 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)35–0
- Q2 0:23MICHRoman Wilson 16 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (James Turner Kick)28–0
- Q2 11:22MICHJ.J. McCarthy 21 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)21–0
- Q1 7:15MICHKalel Mullings 20 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:20MICHRoman Wilson 29 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (James Turner Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NEB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MICH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.7 vs 3rd & 4.3
- NEB lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 31% success rate
- PassJ.J. McCarthy 12/16, 156 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBlake Corum 16 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRoman Wilson 4 REC, 58 YDS, 2 TD
- PassHeinrich Haarberg 14/25, 199 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJoshua Fleeks 1 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBilly Kemp IV 4 REC, 61 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMICH up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 275 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:20MICH +8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 29 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Michigan vs. Nebraska?
Michigan 45, Nebraska 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MICH) was correct.
| MICH | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| 436 | Total yards | 305 |
| 187 | Passing yards | 199 |
| 249 | Rushing yards | 106 |
| 26 | First downs | 10 |
| 8-13 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 16/23 | Comp/Att | 14/25 |
| 8.1 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 0-0 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 38:01 | Possession | 21:59 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:59 NEB punt on 4th & 3 at NEB 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:17NEBJoshua Fleeks 74 Yd Run (Tristan Alvano Kick)45–7
- Q4 4:37MICHPeyton O'Leary 8 Yd pass from Jayden Denegal (James Turner Kick)45–0
- Q4 14:17MICHJames Turner 30 Yd Field Goal 38–0
- Q3 5:58MICHBlake Corum 1 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)35–0
- Q2 0:23MICHRoman Wilson 16 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (James Turner Kick)28–0
- Q2 11:22MICHJ.J. McCarthy 21 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)21–0
- Q1 7:15MICHKalel Mullings 20 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:20MICHRoman Wilson 29 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (James Turner Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEB Elo 1483, MICH Elo 1953 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEB +16.4 (15% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMichigan leads 9–4–1 · Michigan has won 5 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| MICH | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| +35.0 (#3) | CORE overall | +5.0 (#45) |
| +16 / -19 | offense / defense | -3 / -8 |
| 3.42 | points / drive | 1.52 |
| 0.95 | allowed / drive | 1.60 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →