Georgia Southern vs. James Madison: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASOTeam statsJMU
- Q4 0:26GASODavid Mbadinga 1 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)13–41
- Q3 1:06JMUTy Son Lawton 4 Yd Run (Camden Wise Kick)6–41
- Q3 3:46JMUKaelon Black 20 Yd Run (Camden Wise Kick)6–34
- Q3 7:48JMUKaelon Black 15 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Camden Wise Kick)6–27
- Q2 0:00GASOMichael Lantz 27 Yd Field Goal 6–20
- Q2 1:31JMUCamden Wise 46 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q2 3:30GASOMichael Lantz 43 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 7:32JMUCamden Wise 23 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 2:01JMUKaelon Black 15 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Camden Wise Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:06JMUElijah Sarratt 23 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Camden Wise Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDavis Brin 31/52, 271 YDS, 2 INT
- RushJalen White 10 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecKhaleb Hood 10 REC, 78 YDS
- PassJordan McCloud 20/31, 259 YDS, 3 TD
- RushKaelon Black 11 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- RecElijah Sarratt 5 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsJMU up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 275 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:06JMU +15%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 23 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)
- Q1 2:01JMU +12%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 15 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. James Madison?
Georgia Southern 13, James Madison 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
| GASO | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 368 | Total yards | 384 |
| 304 | Passing yards | 259 |
| 64 | Rushing yards | 125 |
| 25 | First downs | 20 |
| 12-21 | 3rd down | 4-10 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 35/59 | Comp/Att | 20/31 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 8.4 |
| 2.2 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-30 | Penalties | 3-20 |
| 34:29 | Possession | 25:31 |
Costliest call
Q3 9:29 JMU punt on 4th & 4 at GASO 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.96 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:26GASODavid Mbadinga 1 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)13–41
- Q3 1:06JMUTy Son Lawton 4 Yd Run (Camden Wise Kick)6–41
- Q3 3:46JMUKaelon Black 20 Yd Run (Camden Wise Kick)6–34
- Q3 7:48JMUKaelon Black 15 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Camden Wise Kick)6–27
- Q2 0:00GASOMichael Lantz 27 Yd Field Goal 6–20
- Q2 1:31JMUCamden Wise 46 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q2 3:30GASOMichael Lantz 43 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 7:32JMUCamden Wise 23 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 2:01JMUKaelon Black 15 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Camden Wise Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:06JMUElijah Sarratt 23 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Camden Wise Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (JMU Elo 1598, GASO Elo 1522 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects JMU -5.4 (65% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| GASO | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.5 (#97) | CORE overall | +17.1 (#16) |
| -0 / +9 | offense / defense | +6 / -11 |
| 2.21 | points / drive | 2.64 |
| 2.45 | allowed / drive | 1.48 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +15 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →