Northern Iowa vs. South Dakota State: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Northern Iowa0-1

South Dakota State5-0

▸

Final

Dana J. Dykhouse StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
NORT	0	3	0	3	6
SOUT	14	10	14	3	41

NORTTeam statsSOUT

264Total yards460

224Pass291

40Rush169

14First downs21

6-103rd down7-11

5Turnovers2

24:37Possession35:23

Q4 6:48NORTMatthew Cook 43 Yd Field Goal 6–41
Q4 10:17SOUTHunter Dustman 42 Yd Field Goal 3–41
Q3 3:23SOUTZach Heins 23 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)3–38
Q3 10:45SOUTZach Heins 6 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)3–31
Q2 0:00NORTMatthew Cook 38 Yd Field Goal 3–24
Q2 0:33SOUTHunter Dustman 42 Yd Field Goal 0–24
Q2 6:56SOUTJadon Janke 16 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)0–21
Q1 3:54SOUTIsaiah Davis 3 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)0–14
Q1 7:42SOUTMark Gronowski 1 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

SOUT −24

Against the number

SOUT covered

line SOUT −24

Kickoff129 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

SOUT (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SOUT 100%

Closing line

SOUT −24

Closing total

54.5

Model line

—

Actual result

NORT 6 – 41 SOUT

Northern Iowa

PassTheo Day 16/24, 210 YDS, 2 INT
RushZach Brand 6 CAR, 30 YDS
RecSam Schnee 4 REC, 104 YDS

South Dakota State

PassMark Gronowski 21/26, 291 YDS, 3 TD
RushIsaiah Davis 17 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
RecZach Heins 4 REC, 69 YDS, 2 TD

28.7sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

116

Points / snap

0.41

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

SOUT up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 274 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

SOUT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WAir Force vs Robert Morris42-7 WMiami (OH) vs Delaware State62-20 WMaine vs Stony Brook56-28 WMichigan vs Nebraska45-7 WJames Madison vs Georgia Southern41-13

FAQ

What was the final score of Northern Iowa vs. South Dakota State?

Northern Iowa 6, South Dakota State 41.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (SOUT) was correct.

NORT

SOUT

42%

Success rate

49%

0.10

EPA / pass

0.90

-0.40

EPA / rush

0.04

36%

Early-down success

44%

50%

Pass success

67%

29%

Rush success

36%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

33%

Stuffed rush rate

14%

60%

Pass rate

43%

5.9

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.3

NORT

5.9 yards to go on 3rd down

53 scrimmage snaps

SOUT

6.3 yards to go on 3rd down

63 scrimmage snaps

NORT		SOUT
264	Total yards	460
224	Passing yards	291
40	Rushing yards	169
14	First downs	21
6-10	3rd down	7-11
0-0	4th down	0-0
18/26	Comp/Att	21/26
8.6	Yards per pass	11.2
1.5	Yards per rush	4.7
5	Turnovers	2
2-15	Penalties	6-47
24:37	Possession	35:23

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

NORTTeam statsSOUT

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

FAQ

What was the final score of Northern Iowa vs. South Dakota State?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Northern Iowa vs. South Dakota State: Final Score & Recap

NORTTeam statsSOUT

How the model called it

What was the final score of Northern Iowa vs. South Dakota State?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?