Buffalo vs. Liberty: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BUFTeam statsLIB
- Q4 6:09BUFCole Burniston 5 Yd pass from Matt Myers (Alex McNulty Kick)17–35
- Q3 0:15LIBAntonio Gandy-Golden 55 Yd pass from Stephen Calvert (Alex Probert Kick)10–35
- Q3 3:36BUFAlex McNulty 45 Yd Field Goal 10–28
- Q2 3:24LIBFrankie Hickson 1 Yd Run (Alex Probert Kick)7–28
- Q2 6:09LIBAntonio Gandy-Golden 36 Yd pass from Stephen Calvert (Alex Probert Kick)7–21
- Q2 12:12LIBKevin Shaa 33 Yd pass from Stephen Calvert (Alex Probert Kick)7–14
- Q2 14:56BUFDylan McDuffie 13 Yd pass from Matt Myers (Alex McNulty Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:43LIBMichael Bollinger 19 Yd pass from Stephen Calvert (Alex Probert Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BUF played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and LIB did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 5.5
- PassMatt Myers 15/33, 167 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKevin Marks Jr. 18 CAR, 108 YDS
- RecAntonio Nunn 4 REC, 49 YDS
- PassStephen Calvert 23/30, 325 YDS, 4 TD
- RushJoshua Mack 9 CAR, 59 YDS
- RecAntonio Gandy-Golden 8 REC, 174 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLIB up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 12:12LIB +21%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 33 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)
- Q2 6:09LIB +20%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 36 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)
- Q2 14:56BUF +20%
Matt Myers pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for 13 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)
- Q2 3:24LIB +11%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Buffalo vs. Liberty?
Buffalo 17, Liberty 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BUF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BUF | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 373 | Total yards | 401 |
| 167 | Passing yards | 325 |
| 206 | Rushing yards | 76 |
| 26 | First downs | 22 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 5-9 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 15/33 | Comp/Att | 23/30 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 10.8 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 2.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-79 | Penalties | 7-85 |
| 31:51 | Possession | 28:09 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:19 LIB punt on 4th & 4 at BUF 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.82 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:09BUFCole Burniston 5 Yd pass from Matt Myers (Alex McNulty Kick)17–35
- Q3 0:15LIBAntonio Gandy-Golden 55 Yd pass from Stephen Calvert (Alex Probert Kick)10–35
- Q3 3:36BUFAlex McNulty 45 Yd Field Goal 10–28
- Q2 3:24LIBFrankie Hickson 1 Yd Run (Alex Probert Kick)7–28
- Q2 6:09LIBAntonio Gandy-Golden 36 Yd pass from Stephen Calvert (Alex Probert Kick)7–21
- Q2 12:12LIBKevin Shaa 33 Yd pass from Stephen Calvert (Alex Probert Kick)7–14
- Q2 14:56BUFDylan McDuffie 13 Yd pass from Matt Myers (Alex McNulty Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:43LIBMichael Bollinger 19 Yd pass from Stephen Calvert (Alex Probert Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LIB Elo 1243, BUF Elo 1426 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LIB +4.9 (38% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#38 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #72 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →| BUF | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.9 (#50) | CORE overall | -5.9 (#86) |
| -2 / -5 | offense / defense | -3 / +3 |
| 2.44 | points / drive | 2.43 |
| 1.77 | allowed / drive | 2.24 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -13 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →