Kent State vs. UCF: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KENTTeam statsUCF
- Q4 0:54UCFDemarkcus Bowman 5 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)6–56
- Q4 7:26UCFMark-Antony Richards 7 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)6–49
- Q3 0:49KENTAndrew Glass 43 Yd Field Goal 6–42
- Q3 4:07UCFRJ Harvey 48 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)3–42
- Q3 10:37UCFRJ Harvey 50 Yd pass from John Rhys Plumlee (Colton Boomer Kick)3–35
- Q2 0:42UCFAlec Holler 18 Yd pass from John Rhys Plumlee (Colton Boomer Kick)3–28
- Q2 8:46UCFJordan McDonald 2 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)3–21
- Q1 3:20KENTAndrew Glass 45 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 6:07UCFJohn Rhys Plumlee 17 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:56UCFXavier Townsend 9 Yd pass from John Rhys Plumlee (Colton Boomer Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- KENT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UCF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 4.8
- PassMichael Alaimo 12/31, 145 YDS, 1 INT
- RushGavin Garcia 18 CAR, 45 YDS
- RecChrishon McCray 3 REC, 61 YDS
- PassJohn Rhys Plumlee 22/30, 281 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushJohnny Richardson 12 CAR, 100 YDS
- RecXavier Townsend 5 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUCF up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 583 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 6:07UCF +11%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 17 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
- Q2 8:46UCF +7%
Jordan McDonald run for 2 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Kent State vs. UCF?
Kent State 6, UCF 56.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UCF) was correct.
| KENT | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 239 | Total yards | 723 |
| 145 | Passing yards | 334 |
| 94 | Rushing yards | 389 |
| 15 | First downs | 32 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 9-13 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 12/32 | Comp/Att | 25/35 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 9.5 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 8.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 7-70 |
| 28:34 | Possession | 31:26 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:43 KENT punt on 4th & 6 at UCF 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.18 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:54UCFDemarkcus Bowman 5 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)6–56
- Q4 7:26UCFMark-Antony Richards 7 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)6–49
- Q3 0:49KENTAndrew Glass 43 Yd Field Goal 6–42
- Q3 4:07UCFRJ Harvey 48 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)3–42
- Q3 10:37UCFRJ Harvey 50 Yd pass from John Rhys Plumlee (Colton Boomer Kick)3–35
- Q2 0:42UCFAlec Holler 18 Yd pass from John Rhys Plumlee (Colton Boomer Kick)3–28
- Q2 8:46UCFJordan McDonald 2 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)3–21
- Q1 3:20KENTAndrew Glass 45 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 6:07UCFJohn Rhys Plumlee 17 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:56UCFXavier Townsend 9 Yd pass from John Rhys Plumlee (Colton Boomer Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCF Elo 1534, KENT Elo 1396 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCF -7.9 (71% to win) — 27.1 points clear of KENT's market line of -35. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| KENT | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| -33.4 (#133) | CORE overall | +11.4 (#29) |
| -17 / +17 | offense / defense | +9 / -2 |
| 1.12 | points / drive | 2.71 |
| 3.28 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 37% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -6 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →