Jackson State vs. Florida A&M: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Jackson State

0010

Florida A&M

▸0028

Final

Hard Rock StadiumNeutral siteConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
JACK	0	0	3	7	10
FLOR	21	7	0	0	28

JACKTeam statsFLOR

303Total yards358

231Pass150

72Rush208

17First downs18

2-143rd down6-13

2Turnovers0

29:01Possession30:59

Scoring plays

• Q4 13:51JACKRico Powers 66 Yd pass from Zy McDonald (Gerardo Baeza Kick)10–28
• Q3 1:10JACKGerardo Baeza 24 Yd Field Goal 3–28
• Q2 5:55FLORJaquez Yant 3 Yd Run (Cameron Gillis Kick)0–28
• Q1 5:34FLORJah'Marae Sheread 5 Yd pass from Jeremy Moussa (Cameron Gillis Kick)0–21
• Q1 8:55FLORTrevonte Davis 18 Yd pass from Jeremy Moussa (Cameron Gillis Kick)0–14
• Q1 14:49FLORMarcus Riley 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Cameron Gillis Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

JACK −3.5

Against the number

FLOR covered

line JACK −3.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

FLOR 100%50%JACK 100%

Kickoff153 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

FLOR (top)JACK (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FLOR 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

JACK −3.5

Closing total

46.5

Model line

—

Actual result

JACK 10 – 28 FLOR

Leaders

Jackson State

• PassZy McDonald 10/14, 149 YDS, 1 TD
• RushIrv Mulligan 16 CAR, 77 YDS
• RecRico Powers Jr. 4 REC, 119 YDS, 1 TD

Florida A&M

• PassJeremy Moussa 12/22, 150 YDS, 2 TD
• RushTerrell Jennings 11 CAR, 75 YDS
• RecJah'Marae Sheread 5 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.6sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

128

Points / snap

0.30

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

FLOR up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 583 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

FLOR went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUCF vs Kent State56-6WUAB vs North Carolina A&T35-6WOregon State vs San José State42-17WWest Virginia vs Duquesne56-17WUCLA vs San Diego State35-10

Fourth downs

19 calls

JACK gave up 1.2 points to the model on fourth down.JACK 8/11 · FLOR 3/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Jackson State vs. Florida A&M?

Jackson State 10, Florida A&M 28.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (FLOR) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

JACK

FLOR

35%

Success rate

45%

0.12

EPA / pass

0.01

-0.11

EPA / rush

0.24

38%

Early-down success

46%

37%

Pass success

30%

32%

Rush success

54%

6%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

7%

Stuffed rush rate

21%

58%

Pass rate

37%

7.9

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.6

JACK

7.9 yards to go on 3rd down

66 scrimmage snaps

FLOR

6.6 yards to go on 3rd down

62 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

JACK		FLOR
303	Total yards	358
231	Passing yards	150
72	Rushing yards	208
17	First downs	18
2-14	3rd down	6-13
3-4	4th down	0-1
20/34	Comp/Att	12/22
6.8	Yards per pass	6.8
2.3	Yards per rush	5.3
2	Turnovers	0
4-30	Penalties	6-50
29:01	Possession	30:59

Fourth downs

19 calls

JACK

8/11 with the model

−1.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

FLOR

3/6 with the model

−1.0 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 12:10 JACK go for it on 4th & 10 at FLOR 15. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.90 points.

Every call, priced (19)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

JACK 2/11 scoring drives← own end zone →FLOR 4/12 scoring drives

FLORTD0 pl, 0 yds· opp 0Q1

JACKFUM5 pl, 11 yds· own 47Q1

FLORTD8 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q1

JACKFUM5 pl, -8 yds· own 25Q1

FLORTD5 pl, 15 yds· opp 15Q1

JACKPUNT5 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1

FLORPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 20Q1

JACKPUNT6 pl, 23 yds· own 19Q1

FLORMISS10 pl, 52 yds· own 19Q2

JACKPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 38Q2

FLORTD4 pl, 38 yds· opp 38Q2

JACKPUNT4 pl, 14 yds· own 15Q2

FLORPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· opp 35Q2

JACKPUNT7 pl, 28 yds· own 10Q2

FLOREND1 pl, -6 yds· own 11Q2

JACKPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 31Q3

FLORPUNT8 pl, 18 yds· own 15Q3

JACKFG17 pl, 71 yds· own 22Q3

FLORPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 30Q3

JACKTD3 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q4

FLORMISS6 pl, 48 yds· own 30Q4

JACKFUM9 pl, 61 yds· own 26Q4

FLOREND13 pl, 84 yds· own 13Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 13:51JACKRico Powers 66 Yd pass from Zy McDonald (Gerardo Baeza Kick)10–28
• Q3 1:10JACKGerardo Baeza 24 Yd Field Goal 3–28
• Q2 5:55FLORJaquez Yant 3 Yd Run (Cameron Gillis Kick)0–28
• Q1 5:34FLORJah'Marae Sheread 5 Yd pass from Jeremy Moussa (Cameron Gillis Kick)0–21
• Q1 8:55FLORTrevonte Davis 18 Yd pass from Jeremy Moussa (Cameron Gillis Kick)0–14
• Q1 14:49FLORMarcus Riley 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Cameron Gillis Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →