Miami vs. Wisconsin: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIATeam statsWIS
- Q4 0:08WISTaiwan Deal 1 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)3–35
- Q4 9:59WISJack Coan 7 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)3–28
- Q3 3:36WISAlec Ingold 2 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)3–21
- Q1 1:15MIABubba Baxa 33 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 11:30WISJonathan Taylor 7 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:56WISKendric Pryor 35 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassMalik Rosier 5/12, 46 YDS, 3 INT
- RushMalik Rosier 3 CAR, 90 YDS
- RecLawrence Cager 1 REC, 22 YDS
- PassJack Coan 6/11, 73 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJonathan Taylor 27 CAR, 205 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKendric Pryor 1 REC, 35 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWIS up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:56WIS +18%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 35 yds for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
- Q1 11:30WIS +17%
Jonathan Taylor run for 7 yds for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
- Q3 3:36WIS +11%
Alec Ingold run for 2 yds for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
- Q3 4:37WIS +7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 41 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST down
- Q1 1:15MIA +7%
Bubba Baxa 33 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 11:22WIS +6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 11 yds to the Wisc 13 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami vs. Wisconsin?
Miami 3, Wisconsin 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MIA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MIA | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 169 | Total yards | 406 |
| 48 | Passing yards | 73 |
| 121 | Rushing yards | 333 |
| 6 | First downs | 20 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 6/17 | Comp/Att | 6/11 |
| 2.8 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 5.7 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1-5 | Penalties | 1-15 |
| 19:48 | Possession | 39:47 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:26 WIS punt on 4th & 17 at MIA 35. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:08WISTaiwan Deal 1 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)3–35
- Q4 9:59WISJack Coan 7 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)3–28
- Q3 3:36WISAlec Ingold 2 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)3–21
- Q1 1:15MIABubba Baxa 33 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 11:30WISJonathan Taylor 7 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:56WISKendric Pryor 35 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WIS Elo 1649, MIA Elo 1782 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects WIS +5.3 (37% to win) — 2.8 points clear of MIA's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#14 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #100 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →| MIA | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.8 (#34) | CORE overall | +15.0 (#18) |
| -6 / -13 | offense / defense | +11 / -4 |
| 1.72 | points / drive | 2.42 |
| 1.43 | allowed / drive | 1.87 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →