#17Jack Coan

QB·Wisconsin·2021 20198.2 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Jack Coan is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Wisconsin. Jack's 2019 season ranks in the 73th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 356 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jack Coan's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

236/339 Comp/Att2727 Pass yards18 Pass TD5 INT69.6% Comp %

Rushing

21 Rush yards4 Rush TD56 Carries0.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs QB peers

Efficiency73
Volume100
Dual-Threat31
Consistency78
Clutch63

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)73th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 0.90 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Kent State (SP+ -10).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@South Florida	W49-0	-9.8	19/26	201	2	0	76.1	-14	0	0.09
2	vsCentral Michigan	W61-0	-4.4	26/33	363	3	0	95.1	0	0	0.76
4	vsMichigan	W35-14	20.7	13/16	128	0	0	87.7	12	2	0.24
5	vsNorthwestern	W24-15	-5.5	15/24	113	0	1	18.8	2	0	-0.11
6	vsKent State	W48-0	-10.2	12/15	134	2	0	94.6	7	0	0.90
7	vsMichigan State	W38-0	7.2	18/21	180	1	0	95.2	-15	0	0.63
8	@Illinois	L23-24	0.6	24/32	264	1	1	79.5	-10	0	0.49
9	@Ohio State	L7-38	35.4	10/17	108	1	0	13.9	-6	0	-0.02
11	vsIowa	W24-22	16.7	16/25	173	2	1	—	-1	0	0.27
12	@Nebraska	W37-21	2.6	13/21	162	1	0	—	—	—	0.31
13	vsPurdue	W45-24	-0.7	15/19	203	2	1	—	-9	0	0.57
14	@Minnesota	W38-17	19.4	15/22	280	2	0	—	20	0	0.74
15	vsOhio State	L21-34	35.4	17/33	232	0	0	—	27	2	0.42
1	vsOregon	L27-28	19.0	23/35	186	1	1	—	8	0	0.29

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

40.3%

Passing plays

96.4%

Rushing plays

6.9%

Standard downs

31.0%

Passing downs

66.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.37
Passing downs: 0.49
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.46 / 0.05

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2021 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Wisconsin	8.2	0.580	—	215.2
2021	Notre Dame	9.5	0.580	—	255.8

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.