Columbia vs. Lafayette: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Columbia
Lafayette0-1
▸Final
Fisher Field
COLUTeam statsLAFA
157Total yards392
83Pass149
74Rush243
11First downs20
2-113rd down9-17
1Turnovers1
24:02Possession35:58
- Q4 14:14LAFAJack Simonetta 34 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q3 3:03LAFAJamar Curtis 29 Yd Run (Jack Simonetta Kick)3–21
- Q2 4:31LAFADean DeNobile 1 Yd Run (Jack Simonetta Kick)3–14
- Q2 12:54LAFAJamar Curtis 6 Yd Run (Jack Simonetta Kick)3–7
- Q1 6:00COLUHugo Merry 42 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
Market line
COLU −5.5
Against the number
LAFA covered
line COLU −5.5
Kickoff145 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
LAFA (top)COLU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: LAFA 100%
Closing line
COLU −5.5
Closing total
40.5
Model line
—
Actual result
COLU 3 – 24 LAFA
Columbia
- PassCaden Bell 9/24, 83 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJoey Giorgi 18 CAR, 73 YDS
- RecJJ Jenkins 3 REC, 41 YDS
Lafayette
- PassDean DeNobile 15/22, 149 YDS
- RushJamar Curtis 20 CAR, 145 YDS, 2 TD
- RecElijah Steward 7 REC, 73 YDS
11sper snap · faster the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
129
Points / snap
0.21
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLAFA up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
LAFA went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Columbia vs. Lafayette?
Columbia 3, Lafayette 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LAFA) was correct.
COLU
LAFA
37%
Success rate
43%
0.03
EPA / pass
0.30
-0.11
EPA / rush
0.21
43%
Early-down success
36%
33%
Pass success
39%
41%
Rush success
45%
2%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
11%
4%
Stuffed rush rate
10%
50%
Pass rate
35%
6.9
Avg 3rd-down distance
7.1
COLU
6.9 yards to go on 3rd down
54 scrimmage snaps
LAFA
7.1 yards to go on 3rd down
75 scrimmage snaps
| COLU | LAFA | |
|---|---|---|
| 157 | Total yards | 392 |
| 83 | Passing yards | 149 |
| 74 | Rushing yards | 243 |
| 11 | First downs | 20 |
| 2-11 | 3rd down | 9-17 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 9/25 | Comp/Att | 15/22 |
| 3.3 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-20 | Penalties | 3-20 |
| 24:02 | Possession | 35:58 |
COLU
4/7 with the model
−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob
LAFA
6/7 with the model
nothing given up
Costliest call
Q1 12:09 COLU punt on 4th & 2 at COLU 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.60 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishCOLU 1/10 scoring drives← own end zone →LAFA 4/11 scoring drives
LAFAFUM3 pl, 5 yds· opp 40Q0
LAFAPUNT4 pl, 8 yds· own 11Q1
COLUPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 35Q1
LAFAPUNT6 pl, 33 yds· own 1Q1
COLUFG10 pl, 37 yds· own 39Q1
LAFATD17 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q1
COLUPUNT6 pl, 10 yds· own 24Q2
LAFAPUNT2 pl, 0 yds· own 16Q2
COLUDOWNS4 pl, -9 yds· opp 36Q2
LAFATD6 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q2
COLUPUNT6 pl, 34 yds· own 19Q2
LAFAEND5 pl, 21 yds· own 13Q2
COLUUncateg9 pl, 25 yds· own 15Q3
COLUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 35Q3
LAFATD8 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3
COLUINT3 pl, 13 yds· own 14Q3
LAFAFG7 pl, 24 yds· opp 41Q3
COLUDOWNS8 pl, 34 yds· own 31Q4
LAFAMISS13 pl, 52 yds· own 35Q4
COLUDOWNS4 pl, -7 yds· own 20Q4
LAFAEND5 pl, 9 yds· opp 13Q4
- Q4 14:14LAFAJack Simonetta 34 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q3 3:03LAFAJamar Curtis 29 Yd Run (Jack Simonetta Kick)3–21
- Q2 4:31LAFADean DeNobile 1 Yd Run (Jack Simonetta Kick)3–14
- Q2 12:54LAFAJamar Curtis 6 Yd Run (Jack Simonetta Kick)3–7
- Q1 6:00COLUHugo Merry 42 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →