Minnesota vs. Oregon State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MINNTeam statsORST
- Q4 2:53MINNDemry Croft 64 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)48–14
- Q4 5:24MINNShannon Brooks 1 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)41–14
- Q3 1:34MINNShannon Brooks 2 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)34–14
- Q3 8:45MINNRodney Smith 1 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)27–14
- Q2 2:41MINNEmmit Carpenter 49 Yd Field Goal 20–14
- Q2 8:33ORSTTrevorris Johnson 2 Yd Run (Jordan Choukair Kick)17–14
- Q2 9:10ORSTJordan Villamin 16 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Jordan Choukair Kick)17–7
- Q2 14:50MINNShannon Brooks 2 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)17–0
- Q1 3:12MINNEmmit Carpenter 26 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 9:07MINNTyler Johnson 67 Yd pass from Conor Rhoda (Emmit Carpenter Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassConor Rhoda 7/8, 158 YDS, 1 TD
- RushRodney Smith 30 CAR, 92 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTyler Johnson 4 REC, 127 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJake Luton 16/28, 135 YDS, 1 TD
- RushArtavis Pierce 8 CAR, 35 YDS
- RecJordan Villamin 3 REC, 55 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMINN up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 8:33ORST +15%
Trevorris Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)
- Q1 9:07MINN +14%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 67 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
- Q3 8:45MINN +12%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
- Q2 9:10ORST +8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 16 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)
- Q2 14:50MINN +8%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
- Q2 2:41MINN +8%
Emmit Carpenter 49 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Minnesota vs. Oregon State?
Minnesota 48, Oregon State 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MINN) was correct.
| MINN | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| 411 | Total yards | 225 |
| 158 | Passing yards | 145 |
| 253 | Rushing yards | 80 |
| 21 | First downs | 14 |
| 9-13 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 7/8 | Comp/Att | 17/29 |
| 19.8 | Yards per pass | 5.0 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-70 | Penalties | 7-91 |
| 38:16 | Possession | 21:44 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:49 ORST punt on 4th & 4 at MINN 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:53MINNDemry Croft 64 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)48–14
- Q4 5:24MINNShannon Brooks 1 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)41–14
- Q3 1:34MINNShannon Brooks 2 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)34–14
- Q3 8:45MINNRodney Smith 1 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)27–14
- Q2 2:41MINNEmmit Carpenter 49 Yd Field Goal 20–14
- Q2 8:33ORSTTrevorris Johnson 2 Yd Run (Jordan Choukair Kick)17–14
- Q2 9:10ORSTJordan Villamin 16 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Jordan Choukair Kick)17–7
- Q2 14:50MINNShannon Brooks 2 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)17–0
- Q1 3:12MINNEmmit Carpenter 26 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 9:07MINNTyler Johnson 67 Yd pass from Conor Rhoda (Emmit Carpenter Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORST Elo 1346, MINN Elo 1593 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORST +7.5 (32% to win) — 10.0 points clear of MINN's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#14 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #99 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →| MINN | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.0 (#96) | CORE overall | -18.0 (#115) |
| -7 / +3 | offense / defense | -4 / +14 |
| 1.76 | points / drive | 1.59 |
| 1.86 | allowed / drive | 3.92 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| -13 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →