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Upsets

Analysis

“Biggest upset” is a phrase people use without a definition, and the definition is the whole argument. Three of them here, scored before anything was ranked, and kept separate — blending them would produce a list nobody could argue with, which sounds good and is the problem.

Final margin minus the points the market spotted the winner. The purest statement that the number was wrong, and it does not care whether anyone was ranked.

#ResultDog byMissWin prob
1Georgia Southern over South Alabama
520 · at home · 2017-11-18
+6+58.035%
2Iowa over #3Ohio State
5524 · at home · 2017-11-04
+21+52.09%
3California over #8Washington State
373 · at home · 2017-10-14
+16.5+50.515%
4Howard over UNLV
4340 · on the road · 2017-09-03
+45+48.00.3%
5Louisiana Tech over SMU
5110 · neutral site · 2017-12-21
+4+45.040%
6Tulsa over Houston
4517 · at home · 2017-10-14
+13.5+41.520%
7Fresno State over New Mexico
380 · at home · 2017-10-15
+2.5+40.544%
8App State over Toledo
340 · neutral site · 2017-12-24
+6+40.035%
9Boston College over Florida State
353 · at home · 2017-10-28
+6+38.035%
10Purdue over Missouri
353 · on the road · 2017-09-16
+5.5+37.537%
11Mississippi State over #12LSU
377 · at home · 2017-09-16
+7.5+37.532%
12Iowa State over #3Oklahoma
3831 · on the road · 2017-10-07
+30.5+37.53%
13Boston College over Virginia
4110 · on the road · 2017-10-21
+6.5+37.534%
14Minnesota over Oregon State
4814 · on the road · 2017-09-10
+2.5+36.544%
15Idaho State over Nevada
3028 · on the road · 2017-09-16
+34.5+36.52%
16#7Miami over #3Notre Dame
418 · at home · 2017-11-12
+3.5+36.541%
17Liberty over Baylor
4845 · on the road · 2017-09-02
+33+36.02%
18UNLV over Idaho
4416 · on the road · 2017-09-09
+4.5+32.539%
19Virginia over Boise State
4223 · on the road · 2017-09-23
+13.5+32.520%
20UCF over Maryland
3810 · on the road · 2017-09-23
+4.5+32.539%
21East Carolina over Cincinnati
4820 · at home · 2017-11-18
+4.5+32.539%
22UNLV over Fresno State
2616 · on the road · 2017-10-29
+21.5+31.59%
23Ohio over Toledo
3810 · at home · 2017-11-09
+3+31.043%
24Fresno State over San Diego State
273 · on the road · 2017-10-22
+6.5+30.534%
25Arizona State over Utah
3010 · on the road · 2017-10-21
+10+30.027%
26South Carolina over Arkansas
4822 · at home · 2017-10-07
+3.5+29.541%
27Texas State over Coastal Carolina
277 · on the road · 2017-10-28
+9.5+29.528%
28Duke over Georgia Tech
4320 · at home · 2017-11-18
+6.5+29.534%
29Georgia State over Charlotte
280 · on the road · 2017-09-23
+1+29.048%
30South Alabama over Troy
198 · on the road · 2017-10-12
+18+29.013%
31UAB over Southern Miss
3012 · on the road · 2017-10-28
+11+29.025%
32Maryland over #23Texas
5141 · on the road · 2017-09-02
+18.5+28.512%
33Utah State over UNLV
5228 · on the road · 2017-10-21
+3.5+27.541%
34Army over Air Force
210 · on the road · 2017-11-04
+6.5+27.534%
35Syracuse over #2Clemson
2724 · at home · 2017-10-13
+24+27.07%
36Florida International over Western Kentucky
4117 · at home · 2017-11-25
+3+27.043%
37Air Force over Colorado State
4528 · on the road · 2017-10-28
+9.5+26.528%
38Duke over Northwestern
4117 · at home · 2017-09-09
+1.5+25.546%
39Florida International over Tulane
2310 · at home · 2017-10-14
+12.5+25.522%
40Florida International over Marshall
4130 · on the road · 2017-10-28
+14.5+25.518%
41#10Auburn over #2Georgia
4017 · at home · 2017-11-11
+2.5+25.544%
42Kentucky over Vanderbilt
4421 · on the road · 2017-11-11
+2.5+25.544%
43Wake Forest over Boston College
3410 · on the road · 2017-09-09
+1+25.048%
44Iowa State over Texas Tech
3113 · on the road · 2017-10-21
+7+25.033%
45Bowling Green over Miami (OH)
3729 · on the road · 2017-10-07
+16.5+24.515%
46Kansas State over #10Oklahoma State
4540 · on the road · 2017-11-18
+19.5+24.511%
47Arizona State over #5Washington
137 · at home · 2017-10-15
+18+24.013%
48#16TCU over #6Oklahoma State
4431 · on the road · 2017-09-23
+10.5+23.526%
49Troy over #25LSU
2421 · on the road · 2017-09-30
+20.5+23.510%
50North Texas over Southern Miss
4328 · on the road · 2017-09-30
+8+23.031%
51Boston College over Louisville
4542 · on the road · 2017-10-14
+20+23.011%
52Oregon over Utah
4120 · at home · 2017-10-28
+2+23.045%
53#5Oklahoma over #2Ohio State
3116 · on the road · 2017-09-09
+7.5+22.532%
54Boise State over #19San Diego State
3114 · on the road · 2017-10-15
+5.5+22.537%
55Tennessee State over Georgia State
1710 · on the road · 2017-08-31
+15+22.017%
56Pittsburgh over #2Miami
2414 · at home · 2017-11-24
+12+22.023%
57San José State over Wyoming
2017 · at home · 2017-11-25
+19+22.012%
58East Carolina over BYU
3317 · at home · 2017-10-21
+5.5+21.537%
59Central Michigan over Kansas
4527 · on the road · 2017-09-09
+3+21.043%
60New Mexico over Air Force
5638 · at home · 2017-09-30
+3+21.043%

What limits this archive

Two of the three measures need a closing line, and line history is dense from 2013 and thin before it. That is a hard boundary, not a soft one — an archive that quietly dropped the seasons it could not price would present the 1980s as having had no upsets. Rows with no line carry only the poll measure, and the columns show which is which.

The lines are sportsbook numbers only. FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, numberfire, teamrankings are excluded: they are model sites, and grading a surprise against another model’s prediction measures the disagreement between two models, not a surprise.

Win probability converts the closing spread through a normal margin with σ = 16 points, the same distribution the live win-probability model uses.