#1Rodney Smith

RB·Minnesota·2019 20161.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Rodney Smith is a 2-year Featured Back for Minnesota. Rodney's 2019 season ranks in the 20th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 238 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Rodney Smith's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Rushing

1163 Rush yards8 Rush TD228 Carries5.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

7 Receptions70 Rec yards0 Rec TD10.0 Yards/rec

Returns

6 Kick returns135 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs RB peers

Efficiency20
Volume77
Explosiveness42
Consistency40
Receiving22

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)20th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency40th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.29 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.44 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Rutgers (SP+ -15).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsSouth Dakota State	W28-21	—	21	92	4.4	0	—	—	—	0.05
2	@Fresno State	W38-35	-4.0	22	61	2.8	1	1	10	0	-0.03
3	vsGeorgia Southern	W35-32	-4.5	11	57	5.2	0	—	—	—	0.37
5	@Purdue	W38-31	-0.7	22	115	5.2	1	1	20	0	0.27
6	vsIllinois	W40-17	0.6	24	211	8.8	1	1	4	0	0.44
7	vsNebraska	W34-7	2.6	18	139	7.7	1	—	—	—	0.39
8	@Rutgers	W42-7	-14.6	19	111	5.8	2	2	24	0	0.44
9	vsMaryland	W52-10	-6.3	17	103	6.1	1	—	—	—	0.38
11	vsPenn State	W31-26	24.3	18	51	2.8	0	—	—	—	-0.20
12	@Iowa	L19-23	16.7	14	46	3.3	1	1	4	0	-0.33
13	@Northwestern	W38-22	-5.5	15	77	5.1	0	—	—	—	0.06
14	vsWisconsin	L17-38	20.3	11	31	2.8	0	—	—	—	-0.15
1	vsAuburn	W31-24	21.0	16	69	4.3	0	1	8	0	-0.03

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

26.9%

Passing plays

3.2%

Rushing plays

42.7%

Standard downs

31.2%

Passing downs

17.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.09
Passing downs: 0.38
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.30 / 0.14

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2019 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Minnesota	2.4	0.280	—	66.4
2019	Minnesota	1.8	0.250	-0.03	54.5

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.