UNLV vs. Fresno State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNLVTeam statsFRES
- Q4 5:00UNLVDaniel Gutierrez 25 Yd Field Goal 26–16
- Q4 14:53UNLVLexington Thomas 2 Yd Run (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)23–16
- Q3 3:38FRESJordan Mims 5 Yd Run (Jimmy Camacho Kick)16–16
- Q3 9:31UNLVJohnny Stanton 7 Yd Run (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)16–9
- Q2 0:06UNLVDaniel Gutierrez 23 Yd Field Goal 9–9
- Q2 10:18UNLVDaniel Gutierrez 27 Yd Field Goal 6–9
- Q1 2:58FRESJimmy Camacho 34 Yd Field Goal 3–9
- Q1 5:58UNLVDaniel Gutierrez 38 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 9:50FRESJordan Mims 3 Yd Run (Jimmy Camacho PAT failed)0–6
How the model called it
- PassJohnny Stanton IV 17/29, 155 YDS
- RushLexington Thomas 20 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDevonte Boyd 5 REC, 62 YDS
- PassMarcus McMaryion 16/27, 152 YDS
- RushJordan Mims 12 CAR, 68 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDerrion Grim 4 REC, 68 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 14:53UNLV +35%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)
- Q3 9:31UNLV +29%
Johnny Stanton run for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)
- Q3 3:38FRES +25%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)
- Q4 7:34UNLV +18%
Johnny Stanton run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 8
- Q4 11:42UNLV +16%
Lexington Thomas run for 16 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST down
- Q4 14:41FRES +10%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 9 yds to the UNLV 44
FAQ
What was the final score of UNLV vs. Fresno State?
UNLV 26, Fresno State 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FRES, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNLV | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 328 | Total yards | 292 |
| 155 | Passing yards | 152 |
| 173 | Rushing yards | 140 |
| 22 | First downs | 19 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 17/29 | Comp/Att | 16/27 |
| 5.3 | Yards per pass | 5.6 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 34:24 | Possession | 25:36 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:00UNLVDaniel Gutierrez 25 Yd Field Goal 26–16
- Q4 14:53UNLVLexington Thomas 2 Yd Run (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)23–16
- Q3 3:38FRESJordan Mims 5 Yd Run (Jimmy Camacho Kick)16–16
- Q3 9:31UNLVJohnny Stanton 7 Yd Run (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)16–9
- Q2 0:06UNLVDaniel Gutierrez 23 Yd Field Goal 9–9
- Q2 10:18UNLVDaniel Gutierrez 27 Yd Field Goal 6–9
- Q1 2:58FRESJimmy Camacho 34 Yd Field Goal 3–9
- Q1 5:58UNLVDaniel Gutierrez 38 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 9:50FRESJordan Mims 3 Yd Run (Jimmy Camacho PAT failed)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FRES Elo 1504, UNLV Elo 1256 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FRES -12.3 (80% to win) — 9.7 points clear of UNLV's market line of -22. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#22 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #6 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Fresno State leads 19–8 · 26% have been one-possession games
| UNLV | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.2 (#113) | CORE overall | +7.1 (#42) |
| -1 / +17 | offense / defense | +1 / -6 |
| 2.43 | points / drive | 2.03 |
| 2.77 | allowed / drive | 1.43 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -7 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →