New Mexico vs. Fresno State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNMTeam statsFRES
- Q4 8:05FRESJosh Hokit 12 Yd Run (Jimmy Camacho Kick)0–38
- Q3 2:35FRESJamire Jordan 32 Yd pass from Marcus McMaryion (Jimmy Camacho Kick)0–31
- Q3 8:04FRESJimmy Camacho 37 Yd Field Goal 0–24
- Q2 10:26FRESRonnie Rivers 4 Yd Run (Jimmy Camacho Kick)0–21
- Q1 0:41FRESKeeSean Johnson 12 Yd pass from Marcus McMaryion (Jimmy Camacho Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:30FRESJamire Jordan 70 Yd pass from Marcus McMaryion (Jimmy Camacho Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTevaka Tuioti 13/24, 200 YDS, 1 INT
- RushTyrone Owens 10 CAR, 29 YDS
- RecDelane Hart-Johnson 2 REC, 56 YDS
- PassMarcus McMaryion 13/23, 299 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJosh Hokit 14 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJamire Jordan 3 REC, 108 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFRES up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:30FRES +21%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 70 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)
- Q1 0:41FRES +19%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 12 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)
- Q2 10:26FRES +14%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico vs. Fresno State?
New Mexico 0, Fresno State 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNM | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 322 | Total yards | 526 |
| 213 | Passing yards | 299 |
| 109 | Rushing yards | 227 |
| 14 | First downs | 17 |
| 2-14 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 15/30 | Comp/Att | 13/23 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 13.0 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 6.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-35 | Penalties | 2-25 |
| 33:44 | Possession | 26:16 |
Costliest call
Q1 4:23 UNM punt on 4th & 1 at UNM 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.15 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:05FRESJosh Hokit 12 Yd Run (Jimmy Camacho Kick)0–38
- Q3 2:35FRESJamire Jordan 32 Yd pass from Marcus McMaryion (Jimmy Camacho Kick)0–31
- Q3 8:04FRESJimmy Camacho 37 Yd Field Goal 0–24
- Q2 10:26FRESRonnie Rivers 4 Yd Run (Jimmy Camacho Kick)0–21
- Q1 0:41FRESKeeSean Johnson 12 Yd pass from Marcus McMaryion (Jimmy Camacho Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:30FRESJamire Jordan 70 Yd pass from Marcus McMaryion (Jimmy Camacho Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FRES Elo 1262, UNM Elo 1498 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FRES +7 (33% to win) — 4.5 points clear of UNM's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#7 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #98 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Fresno State leads 16–6 · 23% have been one-possession games
| UNM | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.4 (#109) | CORE overall | +7.1 (#42) |
| -7 / +9 | offense / defense | +1 / -6 |
| 1.49 | points / drive | 2.03 |
| 2.65 | allowed / drive | 1.43 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -20 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →